Manfred Ugalde
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Manfred Ugalde's performance-implied value at EUR 2.0M-10.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 8.6M-15.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.8M-16.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.73x the positional average in the league (1848 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 20
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 61.8th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €11.2M vs market €12.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -29% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1848 (68% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.44
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.37
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 62 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1443
- Opponent strength
- 1328
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.8M – €16.7M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 40% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +3% (IQR -20% to +74%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 20 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–104%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 50%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | ST | 29 | 1848 | 68% | 5 | 4 | 0.44 | 0.37 | 1328 | 1443 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | ST | 29 | 2134 | 79% | 17 | 5 | 0.93 | 0.65 | 1307 | 1470 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | FC Twente Enschede | Eredivisie | ST | 18 | 1382 | 45% | 7 | 6 | 0.85 | 0.47 | 1351 | 1466 | 0.48 |
| 2023/24 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | ST | 12 | 791 | 29% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 1365 | 1383 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | FC Twente Enschede | Eredivisie | ST | 24 | 862 | 28% | 8 | 1 | 0.94 | 0.55 | 1322 | 1505 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | FC Twente Enschede | Eredivisie | ST | 25 | 635 | 21% | 3 | 2 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 1355 | 1435 | 0.60 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 7 | 408 | 3 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 6 | 381 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FC Twente Enschede | 6 | 517 | 1 | 1 | 1420 |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 4 | 235 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | FC Twente Enschede | 1 | 69 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | FC Twente Enschede | 2 | 99 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FC Twente Enschede | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1477 |
| 2021/22 | Knvb Beker | FC Twente Enschede | 3 | 170 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesús Corona Liga Portugal · 2016 | 23 | €10.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Wanderson Premier Liga · 2020 | 26 | €9.0M | €8.0M | flat |
| Jens Odgaard Eredivisie · 2023 | 24 | €6.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Noa Lang Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 24 | €15.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Joseph Paintsil Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 26 | €9.5M | €6.0M | fell |
| Ferran Jutglà Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 24 | €10.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Milot Rashica Eredivisie · 2018 | 22 | €7.0M | €28.0M | rose |
| Rafa Silva Liga Portugal · 2016 | 23 | €15.0M | €12.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Jan 2024 | FC Twente | Spartak Moscow | €13.0M | €5.0M |
| 6 Jul 2023 | Lommel SK | FC Twente | €4.0M | €3.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | FC Twente | Lommel SK | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Lommel SK | FC Twente | Free / loan | €1.1M |
| 14 Jul 2020 | Saprissa | Lommel SK | €875k | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Saprissa U20 | Saprissa | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.