Junior Kroupi
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Junior Kroupi's performance-implied value at EUR 11.5M-73.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 54.4M-107.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 36.2M-104.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.24x the positional average in the league (1683 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 17
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 91.1th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 20 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €84.8M vs market €70.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -11% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Very High | breakout probability 8% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1683 (49% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.69
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.63
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 91 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1643
- Opponent strength
- 1598
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Very High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 8%
- Resale range (24m)
- €36.2M – €104M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +35% (IQR -16% to +74%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1683 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | AFC Bournemouth | Premier League | ST | 33 | 1683 | 49% | 13 | 0 | 0.70 | 0.63 | 1598 | 1643 | 1.30 |
| 2023/24 | FC Lorient | Ligue 1 | ST | 30 | 1077 | 35% | 5 | 3 | 0.67 | 0.72 | 1478 | 1335 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | FC Lorient | Ligue 1 | AM | 1 | 7 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.41 | 1454 | 1396 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | AFC Bournemouth | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Isak Laliga · 2020 | 21 | €22.5M | €30.0M | rose |
| Anthony Martial Premier League · 2018 | 23 | €65.0M | €48.0M | fell |
| Dejan Kulusevski Premier League · 2022 | 22 | €40.0M | €55.0M | rose |
| João Félix Laliga · 2020 | 21 | €81.0M | €70.0M | flat |
| Christian Pulisic Premier League · 2020 | 22 | €54.0M | €42.0M | fell |
| Erling Haaland Bundesliga · 2020 | 20 | €72.0M | €150M | rose |
| Iñaki Williams Laliga · 2016 | 22 | €15.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Neymar Laliga · 2014 | 22 | €60.0M | €100M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2025 | FC Lorient | Bournemouth | Free / loan | €15.0M |
| 4 Feb 2025 | Bournemouth | FC Lorient | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 3 Feb 2025 | FC Lorient | Bournemouth | €13.0M | €10.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Lorient B | FC Lorient | Unknown | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | FC Lorient U17 | Lorient B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Lorient Yth. | FC Lorient U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.