Erling Haaland
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Erling Haaland's performance-implied value at EUR 95.4M-195.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 144.7M-287.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 76.2M-150.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.24x the positional average in the league (2959 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 1
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 99.9th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €211M vs market €200M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -50% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2959 (87% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 1.06
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.63
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 100 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1809
- Opponent strength
- 1591
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €76.2M – €151M
Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+60 Elo); relative output up 55% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -3% (IQR -24% to +42%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Manchester City | Premier League | ST | 35 | 2959 | 87% | 27 | 8 | 1.06 | 0.63 | 1591 | 1809 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Manchester City | Premier League | ST | 31 | 2743 | 80% | 22 | 3 | 0.82 | 0.42 | 1556 | 1749 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Manchester City | Premier League | ST | 31 | 2558 | 75% | 27 | 4 | 1.09 | 0.47 | 1582 | 1893 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Manchester City | Premier League | ST | 35 | 2777 | 81% | 36 | 8 | 1.43 | 0.64 | 1544 | 1915 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | ST | 24 | 1915 | 63% | 22 | 8 | 1.41 | 0.78 | 1520 | 1643 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | ST | 28 | 2410 | 79% | 27 | 8 | 1.31 | 0.73 | 1529 | 1703 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | ST | 15 | 1063 | 35% | 13 | 3 | 1.35 | 0.61 | 1558 | 1700 | 1.06 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 10 | 755 | 8 | 0 | 1638 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Norway | 2 | 180 | 4 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 3 | 141 | 3 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 9 | 771 | 8 | 0 | 1666 |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 3 | 182 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Community Shield | Manchester City | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1594 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 9 | 779 | 6 | 1 | 1651 |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 3 | 254 | 5 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Super Cup | Manchester City | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1568 |
| 2023/24 | Community Shield | Manchester City | 1 | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1726 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 11 | 846 | 12 | 1 | 1730 |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 4 | 311 | 3 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Community Shield | Manchester City | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1881 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 203 | 3 | 0 | 1536 |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 180 | 4 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1892 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 8 | 706 | 10 | 2 | 1683 |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 357 | 3 | 1 | — |
| 2020/21 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 67 | 1 | 1 | 1919 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Fußballclub Red Bull Salzburg | 6 | 374 | 8 | 1 | 1690 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 180 | 2 | 0 | 1780 |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 45 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lionel Messi Laliga · 2014 | 27 | €120M | €120M | flat |
| Neymar Laliga · 2016 | 24 | €100M | €180M | rose |
| Eden Hazard Premier League · 2019 | 28 | €150M | €40.0M | fell |
| Mohamed Salah Premier League · 2019 | 27 | €150M | €100M | fell |
| Harry Kane Premier League · 2018 | 25 | €150M | €120M | fell |
| Raheem Sterling Premier League · 2018 | 24 | €90.0M | €128M | rose |
| Antoine Griezmann Laliga · 2016 | 25 | €70.0M | €100M | rose |
| Marcus Rashford Premier League · 2021 | 24 | €85.0M | €80.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2022 | Dortmund | Man City | €60.0M | €150M |
| 1 Jan 2020 | Salzburg | Dortmund | €20.0M | €45.0M |
| 1 Jan 2019 | Molde FK | Salzburg | €8.0M | €5.0M |
| 1 Feb 2017 | Bryne | Molde FK | €100k | €200k |
| 8 Sept 2015 | Bryne FK Yth. | Bryne | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.