Aaron Bouwman
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Aaron Bouwman's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-1.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.3M-8.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.5M-16.5M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 22.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 18.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very unfavorable | est. €4.8M vs market €3.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very high | +93% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Very High | breakout probability 64% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 553 (18% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.16
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.07
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 23 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1405
- Opponent strength
- 1250
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Very High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 64%
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.5M – €16.5M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +76% (IQR -17% to +219%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 553 league minutes last season.
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 65%–166%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | CB | 8 | 553 | 18% | 1 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.07 | 1250 | 1405 | 0.43 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Ajax Amsterdam | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1542 |
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | Ajax Amsterdam | 2 | 99 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmetcan Kaplan Super Lig · 2022 | 19 | €2.8M | €10.0M | rose |
| Tristan Gooijer Eredivisie · 2024 | 20 | €2.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Rıdvan Yılmaz Super Lig · 2021 | 20 | €2.0M | €4.5M | rose |
| Zeki Fryers Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 21 | €3.5M | €3.0M | flat |
| Ravil Tagir Super Lig · 2022 | 19 | €1.6M | €2.2M | rose |
| Dexter Lembikisa Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 21 | €3.0M | €800k | fell |
| Issa Kaboré Jupiler Pro League · 2020 | 19 | €1.3M | €4.0M | rose |
| Wouter Goes Eredivisie · 2023 | 19 | €2.0M | €10.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sept 2025 | Ajax U21 | Ajax | Unknown | €350k |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Ajax U17 | Ajax U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Ajax Youth | Ajax U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Kon. HFC Yth. | Ajax Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.