Wouter Goes
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Wouter Goes's performance-implied value at EUR 1.6M-8.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 10.4M-21.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 8.2M-24.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 49
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 50.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €14.9M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -2% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 13% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2751 (90% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.03
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.03
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 51 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1393
- Opponent strength
- 1298
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- 13%
- Resale range (24m)
- €8.2M – €24.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 23 pts; team strength down (-73 Elo); relative output down 74% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +3% (IQR -31% to +45%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 65%–166%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | CB | 33 | 2751 | 90% | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 1298 | 1393 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | CB | 26 | 2056 | 67% | 1 | 3 | 0.18 | 0.11 | 1303 | 1466 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | CB | 15 | 1140 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1321 | 1441 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | CB | 8 | 658 | 22% | 1 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.05 | 1287 | 1530 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | AZ Alkmaar | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1361 |
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 4 | 390 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | AZ Alkmaar | 9 | 719 | 0 | 0 | 1553 |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 5 | 465 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 131 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 76 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Nelsson Super Lig · 2022 | 24 | €12.0M | €17.0M | rose |
| Cheikhou Kouyaté Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 25 | €7.0M | €11.0M | rose |
| Denis Vavro Superliga · 2019 | 23 | €6.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Batista Mendy Super Lig · 2024 | 24 | €9.5M | €7.5M | fell |
| Carlos Cuesta Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 22 | €6.0M | €8.0M | rose |
| Min-jae Kim Super Lig · 2022 | 26 | €14.0M | €45.0M | rose |
| Adamo Nagalo Superliga · 2024 | 22 | €7.0M | €2.8M | fell |
| Strahinja Erakovic Premier Liga · 2024 | 23 | €10.0M | €7.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | AZ Alkmaar U21 | AZ Alkmaar | Unknown | €2.0M |
| 1 Jan 2022 | AZ U18 | AZ Alkmaar U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | AZ U17 | AZ U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2020 | AZ Alkmaar Yth. | AZ U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Ajax Youth | AZ Alkmaar Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.