Santiago Hidalgo
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Santiago Hidalgo's performance-implied value at EUR 1.8M-12.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 4.8M-14.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.4M-18.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.18x the positional average in the league (1303 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 58
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 47.7th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €8.1M vs market €6.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very high | +43% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 26% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1303 (43% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.69
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.60
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 48 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1442
- Opponent strength
- 1460
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 26%
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.4M – €18.2M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +92% (IQR +46% to +249%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1303 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Toulouse | Ligue 1 | ST | 28 | 1303 | 43% | 4 | 6 | 0.69 | 0.60 | 1460 | 1442 | 0.88 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrea Belotti Serie A · 2015 | 22 | €5.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Nicola Sansone Serie A · 2013 | 22 | €5.0M | €8.0M | rose |
| François Kamano Ligue 1 · 2017 | 21 | €4.5M | €15.0M | rose |
| Tiago Tomás Bundesliga · 2023 | 21 | €7.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| M'Baye Niang Serie A · 2015 | 21 | €7.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Michael Gregoritsch Bundesliga · 2016 | 22 | €3.5M | €14.0M | rose |
| Keita Baldé Serie A · 2014 | 19 | €9.0M | €10.0M | flat |
| Dion Beljo Bundesliga · 2023 | 21 | €6.5M | €4.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jul 2025 | Independiente | Toulouse | €2.5M | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Indep'te II | Independiente | Unknown | €350k |
| 1 Jan 2022 | Indep'te U20 | Indep'te II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.