William Gomes
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates William Gomes's performance-implied value at EUR 2.6M-13.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 19.7M-37.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 16.2M-53.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.95x the positional average in the league (1167 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 27
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 56.7th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 20.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €31.5M vs market €25.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +4% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 17% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1167 (38% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.69
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.37
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 57 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1594
- Opponent strength
- 1326
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 17%
- Resale range (24m)
- €16.2M – €53.0M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +100% (IQR +63% to +194%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1167 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 71%–130%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 66%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Porto | Liga Portugal | RW | 28 | 1167 | 38% | 8 | 1 | 0.69 | 0.37 | 1326 | 1594 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | FC Porto | Liga Portugal | LW | 8 | 147 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 1371 | 1508 | 0.51 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | FC Porto | 11 | 626 | 4 | 0 | 1514 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | FC Porto | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1608 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noni Madueke Eredivisie · 2021 | 19 | €16.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Donyell Malen Eredivisie · 2019 | 20 | €7.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Antonio Nusa Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 19 | €15.0M | €32.0M | rose |
| Arda Güler Super Lig · 2023 | 18 | €15.0M | €45.0M | rose |
| Francisco Trincão Liga Portugal · 2020 | 21 | €16.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Jérémy Doku Ligue 1 · 2023 | 21 | €28.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| Viktor Fischer Eredivisie · 2016 | 22 | €5.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Arkadiusz Milik Eredivisie · 2015 | 21 | €6.5M | €19.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jan 2025 | São Paulo | Porto | €9.0M | €6.0M |
| 1 Jan 2024 | São Paulo U17 | São Paulo | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.