Christian Mawissa
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Christian Mawissa's performance-implied value at EUR 4.1M-10.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 11.6M-26.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 8.0M-23.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 23
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 62.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €18.2M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -3% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 9% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1191 (39% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.03
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 62 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1527
- Opponent strength
- 1454
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- 9%
- Resale range (24m)
- €8.0M – €23.5M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +10% (IQR -14% to +54%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1191 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | CB | 18 | 1191 | 39% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1454 | 1527 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | CB | 22 | 1502 | 49% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1477 | 1571 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | FC Toulouse | Ligue 1 | CB | 17 | 1116 | 36% | 2 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.14 | 1477 | 1437 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | FC Toulouse | Ligue 1 | RB | 2 | 97 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 1578 | 1347 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | AS Monaco | 3 | 114 | 0 | 0 | 1636 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | AS Monaco | 6 | 295 | 0 | 0 | 1619 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | FC Toulouse | 2 | 110 | 0 | 0 | 1618 |
| 2023/24 | Trophee Des Champions | FC Toulouse | 1 | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1720 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flavius Daniliuc Ligue 1 · 2022 | 21 | €8.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Duje Caleta-Car Ligue 1 · 2019 | 23 | €15.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Malick Thiaw Serie A · 2023 | 22 | €20.0M | €18.0M | flat |
| Marash Kumbulla Serie A · 2022 | 22 | €16.0M | €4.5M | fell |
| Mattia De Sciglio Serie A · 2015 | 23 | €7.5M | €8.5M | flat |
| Nikola Milenković Serie A · 2018 | 21 | €9.0M | €24.0M | rose |
| Malang Sarr Ligue 1 · 2018 | 19 | €15.0M | €16.0M | flat |
| William Saliba Ligue 1 · 2019 | 18 | €12.0M | €18.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Aug 2024 | Toulouse | Monaco | €16.0M | €9.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Toulouse B | Toulouse | Unknown | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Toulouse U19 | Toulouse B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Toulouse FC U17 | Toulouse U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Toulouse For. | Toulouse FC U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.