William Saliba
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates William Saliba's performance-implied value at EUR 58.6M-88.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 73.3M-152.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 50.4M-85.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 4
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 99.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €110M vs market €100M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -39% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2615 (77% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.03
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.02
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 100 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1876
- Opponent strength
- 1560
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €50.4M – €85.9M
Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+62 Elo); relative output down 47% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -22% (IQR -44% to +6%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | CB | 31 | 2615 | 76% | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 1560 | 1876 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | CB | 35 | 3041 | 89% | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 1552 | 1813 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | CB | 38 | 3420 | 100% | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 1568 | 1794 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | CB | 27 | 2416 | 71% | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.08 | 1549 | 1726 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | CB | 36 | 3240 | 95% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1426 | 1591 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | OGC Nice | Ligue 1 | CB | 20 | 1800 | 53% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 1429 | 1398 | 0.75 |
| 2019/20 | AS Saint-Étienne | Ligue 1 | CB | 12 | 991 | 39% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1442 | 1383 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | AS Saint-Étienne | Ligue 1 | CB | 16 | 1277 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1423 | 1519 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Arsenal FC | 11 | 990 | 0 | 0 | 1658 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | France | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 2 | 79 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Arsenal FC | 11 | 990 | 0 | 0 | 1713 |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Arsenal FC | 10 | 902 | 0 | 0 | 1655 |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Community Shield | Arsenal FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1920 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Arsenal FC | 4 | 291 | 1 | 0 | 1608 |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Marseille | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1448 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | AS Saint-Étienne | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1471 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rúben Dias Premier League · 2021 | 24 | €75.0M | €80.0M | flat |
| Kyle Walker Premier League · 2019 | 29 | €50.0M | €28.0M | fell |
| Clément Lenglet Laliga · 2019 | 24 | €60.0M | €25.0M | fell |
| Manuel Akanji Premier League · 2023 | 28 | €38.0M | €28.0M | fell |
| Antonio Rüdiger Premier League · 2019 | 26 | €50.0M | €28.0M | fell |
| Samuel Umtiti Laliga · 2017 | 24 | €30.0M | €45.0M | rose |
| David Alaba Bundesliga · 2020 | 28 | €52.0M | €55.0M | flat |
| Dayot Upamecano Bundesliga · 2023 | 25 | €60.0M | €50.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2022 | Marseille | Arsenal | Free / loan | €30.0M |
| 15 Jul 2021 | Arsenal | Marseille | Free / loan | €18.0M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Nice | Arsenal | Free / loan | €18.0M |
| 4 Jan 2021 | Arsenal | Nice | Free / loan | €17.0M |
| 30 Jun 2020 | Saint-Étienne | Arsenal | Free / loan | €22.5M |
| 26 Jul 2019 | Arsenal | Saint-Étienne | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 25 Jul 2019 | Saint-Étienne | Arsenal | €30.0M | €12.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Saint-Étienne B | Saint-Étienne | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 11 May 2018 | St-Étienne U19 | Saint-Étienne B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | St-Étienne U17 | St-Étienne U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Montfermeil Jgd | St-Étienne U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | AS Bondy Yth. | Montfermeil Jgd | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.