Vitor Reis
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Vitor Reis's performance-implied value at EUR 6.2M-35.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 22.3M-40.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 21.8M-55.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 60
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 80.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 20.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €32.9M vs market €30.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +20% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Very High | breakout probability 27% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3138 (92% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.06
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.09
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 81 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1413
- Opponent strength
- 1492
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Very High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 27%
- Resale range (24m)
- €21.8M – €55.9M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +67% (IQR +31% to +112%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Girona FC | Laliga | CB | 36 | 3138 | 92% | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 1492 | 1413 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Manchester City | Premier League | CB | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1351 | 1749 | 1.23 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Girona FC | 2 | 149 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 2 | 135 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Micky van de Ven Bundesliga · 2023 | 22 | €30.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| Ozan Kabak Bundesliga · 2019 | 19 | €15.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Logan Costa Ligue 1 · 2024 | 23 | €12.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Abdou Diallo Bundesliga · 2018 | 22 | €12.0M | €28.0M | rose |
| Boubacar Kamara Ligue 1 · 2019 | 20 | €18.0M | €37.0M | rose |
| Sepp van den Berg Bundesliga · 2024 | 23 | €12.0M | €32.0M | rose |
| Melvin Bard Ligue 1 · 2022 | 22 | €9.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Calum Chambers Premier League · 2017 | 22 | €14.0M | €14.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Girona | Man City | Free / loan | €30.0M |
| 8 Aug 2025 | Man City | Girona | Free / loan | €30.0M |
| 21 Jan 2025 | Palmeiras | Man City | €37.0M | €14.0M |
| 1 Jun 2024 | Palmeiras U20 | Palmeiras | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2024 | Palmeiras U17 | Palmeiras U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.