Henrique Carmo
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Henrique Carmo's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-3.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.1M-10.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.7M-11.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.53x the positional average in the league (709 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 29.1th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 19.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very unfavorable | est. €5.4M vs market €3.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very high | +40% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Very High | breakout probability 43% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 901 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 709 (26% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.25
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.21
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 29 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1436
- Opponent strength
- 1290
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Very High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 43%
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.7M – €11.0M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +5% (IQR -16% to +78%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 709 league minutes last season.
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 20 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–104%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 50%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | PFK CSKA Moskva | Premier Liga | RW | 19 | 709 | 26% | 1 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.21 | 1290 | 1436 | 0.56 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 7 | 210 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malick Fofana Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 18 | €2.8M | €30.0M | rose |
| Sebastiano Esposito Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 21 | €3.5M | €8.5M | rose |
| Luca Oyen Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 18 | €3.0M | €3.5M | flat |
| Zakaria Bakkali Eredivisie · 2014 | 18 | €2.5M | €4.0M | rose |
| Güven Yalçın Super Lig · 2020 | 21 | €3.2M | €3.0M | flat |
| Youssouph Badji Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 20 | €3.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Joseph Paintsil Jupiler Pro League · 2020 | 22 | €2.7M | €2.5M | flat |
| Anouar Ait El Hadj Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 20 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Sept 2025 | São Paulo | CSKA Moscow | €5.1M | €1.0M |
| 1 Mar 2024 | São Paulo U17 | São Paulo | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.