Malick Fofana
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Malick Fofana's performance-implied value at EUR 6.3M-16.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 22.1M-42.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 16.2M-41.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.74x the positional average in the league (754 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Above average | 64.7th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €31.2M vs market €30.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -28% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 9% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 901 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 754 (25% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.36
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.30
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 65 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1554
- Opponent strength
- 1449
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- 9%
- Resale range (24m)
- €16.2M – €41.5M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 27 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -16% (IQR -36% to +173%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 754 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | LW | 12 | 754 | 25% | 2 | 1 | 0.36 | 0.30 | 1449 | 1554 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | LW | 29 | 1586 | 52% | 5 | 4 | 0.51 | 0.34 | 1441 | 1571 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | KAA Gent | Jupiler Pro League | LM | 19 | 1145 | 42% | 2 | 4 | 0.47 | 0.27 | 1382 | 1436 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | LW | 17 | 547 | 18% | 3 | 1 | 0.66 | 0.48 | 1467 | 1521 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | KAA Gent | Jupiler Pro League | RW | 19 | 769 | 25% | 0 | 2 | 0.23 | 0.24 | 1287 | 1451 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Lyon | 4 | 167 | 0 | 0 | 1447 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Lyon | 10 | 514 | 6 | 2 | 1533 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | KAA Gent | 4 | 252 | 1 | 1 | 1413 |
| 2022/23 | Volkswagen Supercup | KAA Gent | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1512 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moise Kean Serie A · 2022 | 22 | €24.0M | €14.0M | fell |
| Lazar Markovic Premier League · 2015 | 21 | €15.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Lautaro Martínez Serie A · 2019 | 22 | €30.0M | €80.0M | rose |
| Bryan Gil Laliga · 2022 | 21 | €18.0M | €14.0M | fell |
| Rafael Leão Serie A · 2020 | 21 | €20.0M | €70.0M | rose |
| Cengiz Ünder Serie A · 2020 | 23 | €24.0M | €22.0M | flat |
| Keita Baldé Serie A · 2015 | 20 | €8.5M | €25.0M | rose |
| Nicolò Zaniolo Serie A · 2023 | 24 | €27.0M | €12.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Jan 2024 | KAA Gent | Lyon | €19.5M | €8.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Jong KAA Gent | KAA Gent | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | KAA Gent Youth | KAA Gent U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Aalst Yth. | KAA Gent Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.