Matija Popović
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Matija Popović's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-2.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.1M-4.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.1M-7.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.01x the positional average in the league (461 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 26.1th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 20.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €2.3M vs market €1.8M |
| Expected appreciation | Very high | +58% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Very High | breakout probability 42% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 901 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 461 (17% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.59
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.41
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 26 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1436
- Opponent strength
- 1360
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Very High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 42%
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.1M – €7.8M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +93% (IQR -27% to +182%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 461 league minutes last season.
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 20 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–104%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 50%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | PFK CSKA Moskva | Premier Liga | LW | 13 | 461 | 17% | 0 | 3 | 0.59 | 0.41 | 1360 | 1436 | 0.56 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 4 | 113 | 1 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jürgen Locadia Eredivisie · 2013 | 20 | €2.5M | €3.5M | rose |
| Ernest Poku Eredivisie · 2024 | 20 | €1.3M | €25.0M | rose |
| Samuel Kalu Jupiler Pro League · 2017 | 20 | €3.0M | €10.0M | rose |
| Naci Ünüvar Eredivisie · 2024 | 21 | €2.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Tuur Dierckx Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 21 | €2.2M | €800k | fell |
| Kazeem Olaigbe Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 21 | €1.5M | €4.0M | rose |
| Mayckel Lahdo Eredivisie · 2024 | 22 | €3.0M | €2.7M | flat |
| Younes Taha Eredivisie · 2024 | 22 | €1.5M | €4.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Sept 2025 | Napoli U20 | CSKA Moscow | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Monza | Napoli U19 | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 25 Jan 2024 | Napoli U19 | Monza | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 24 Jan 2024 | Partizan U19 | Napoli U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Partizan U17 | Partizan U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Partizan U16 | Partizan U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 9 Nov 2021 | Teleoptik U15 | Partizan U16 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 6 Sept 2019 | Vojvodina U15 | Teleoptik U15 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.