Ernest Poku
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ernest Poku's performance-implied value at EUR 6.7M-21.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 19.3M-35.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 16.5M-39.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.32x the positional average in the league (1562 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 23
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 73.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €29.2M vs market €25.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -6% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 18% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1562 (51% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.63
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.30
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 74 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1614
- Opponent strength
- 1487
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 18%
- Resale range (24m)
- €16.5M – €39.1M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+148 Elo); league level up (+158 Elo); role change RW -> LM; relative output up 90% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +67% (IQR +8% to +115%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1562 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Bundesliga | LM | 29 | 1485 | 49% | 5 | 5 | 0.61 | 0.30 | 1487 | 1626 | 0.94 |
| 2025/26 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | RW | 1 | 77 | 3% | 0 | 1 | 1.17 | 0.25 | 1197 | 1393 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | RW | 23 | 1542 | 50% | 2 | 3 | 0.29 | 0.30 | 1376 | 1466 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | RW | 21 | 655 | 21% | 1 | 4 | 0.69 | 0.41 | 1374 | 1441 | 0.48 |
| 2021/22 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | RW | 4 | 42 | 1% | 0 | 1 | 2.14 | 0.35 | 1337 | 1496 | 0.60 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 12 | 770 | 0 | 1 | 1689 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 255 | 1 | 1 | 1330 |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 4 | 233 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | AZ Alkmaar | 10 | 698 | 0 | 3 | 1571 |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 5 | 342 | 1 | 2 | — |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 135 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | AZ Alkmaar | 4 | 121 | 0 | 0 | 1291 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1544 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolò Fagioli Serie A · 2023 | 22 | €35.0M | €18.0M | fell |
| Adem Ljajic Serie A · 2013 | 22 | €12.0M | €13.5M | flat |
| Dominik Szoboszlai Bundesliga · 2022 | 22 | €28.0M | €75.0M | rose |
| Brahim Díaz Serie A · 2023 | 24 | €20.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Geoffrey Kondogbia Ligue 1 · 2014 | 21 | €16.0M | €24.0M | rose |
| Álex Baena Laliga · 2023 | 22 | €20.0M | €55.0M | rose |
| Miralem Pjanić Serie A · 2013 | 23 | €14.0M | €26.0M | rose |
| Pedro Porro Premier League · 2023 | 24 | €40.0M | €38.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Aug 2025 | AZ Alkmaar | Leverkusen | €10.0M | €4.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | AZ Alkmaar U21 | AZ Alkmaar | Unknown | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | AZ U18 | AZ Alkmaar U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | AZ Alkmaar Yth. | AZ U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | FC A'dam Yth. | AZ Alkmaar Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.