Artem Stepanov
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Artem Stepanov's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-1.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.2M-9.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.3M-16.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.87x the positional average in the league (817 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 14th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 18.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €4.3M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very high | +44% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Very High | breakout probability 59% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 901 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 817 (27% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.55
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.44
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 14 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1352
- Opponent strength
- 1309
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Very High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 59%
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.3M – €16.6M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +34% (IQR -39% to +123%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 817 league minutes last season.
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 73%–122%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 61%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Utrecht | Eredivisie | ST | 13 | 817 | 27% | 4 | 1 | 0.55 | 0.44 | 1309 | 1352 | 0.43 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Nuremberg | 1 | 74 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 2 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1567 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Forbs Eredivisie · 2024 | 20 | €8.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Luca Oyen Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 19 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Darío Osorio Superliga · 2024 | 20 | €7.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Cihan Çanak Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 19 | €3.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Ferdi Kadıoğlu Super Lig · 2021 | 22 | €4.2M | €17.0M | rose |
| Filip Stevanovic Eredivisie · 2022 | 20 | €2.5M | €900k | fell |
| Frank Acheampong Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 21 | €2.5M | €5.0M | rose |
| Mayckel Lahdo Eredivisie · 2024 | 22 | €3.0M | €2.7M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jan 2026 | Leverkusen | Utrecht | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 29 Jan 2026 | 1.FC Nuremberg | Leverkusen | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 2 Jul 2025 | Leverkusen | 1.FC Nuremberg | Free / loan | €800k |
| 1 Jul 2025 | Leverkusen U19 | Leverkusen | Unknown | €800k |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Leverkusen U17 | Leverkusen U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2022 | Shakhtar U17 | Leverkusen U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.