Carlos Forbs
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Carlos Forbs's performance-implied value at EUR 4.6M-18.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 15.3M-30.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 13.7M-36.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.80x the positional average in the league (2029 minutes, league coefficient 0.65). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 41
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 68.1th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €23.5M vs market €20.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +9% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 14% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2029 (75% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.44
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.31
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 68 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1589
- Opponent strength
- 1362
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 14%
- Resale range (24m)
- €13.7M – €36.5M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +9% (IQR +0% to +64%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 78 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–126%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 60%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Club Brugge KV | Jupiler Pro League | RW | 27 | 2029 | 75% | 3 | 7 | 0.44 | 0.31 | 1362 | 1589 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | LW | 10 | 233 | 7% | 0 | 1 | 0.39 | 0.56 | 1608 | 1501 | 1.23 |
| 2024/25 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | RW | 1 | 32 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.26 | 1222 | 1505 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | LW | 21 | 822 | 27% | 2 | 4 | 0.66 | 0.36 | 1336 | 1439 | 0.48 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Playoff I | Club Brugge KV | 10 | 791 | 5 | 2 | 1433 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Club Brugge KV | 9 | 674 | 2 | 3 | 1659 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Club Brugge KV | 4 | 208 | 1 | 0 | 1449 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Ajax Amsterdam | 5 | 325 | 0 | 0 | 1433 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Ajax Amsterdam | 6 | 359 | 1 | 1 | 1510 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Ajax Amsterdam | 2 | 104 | 0 | 0 | 1421 |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | Ajax Amsterdam | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leandro Trossard Jupiler Pro League · 2019 | 25 | €16.0M | €17.0M | flat |
| André Silva Liga Portugal · 2017 | 22 | €22.0M | €22.0M | flat |
| Luis Sinisterra Eredivisie · 2020 | 21 | €10.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Evanilson Liga Portugal · 2022 | 23 | €22.0M | €35.0M | rose |
| Mohammed Kudus Eredivisie · 2023 | 23 | €40.0M | €45.0M | flat |
| Steven Bergwijn Eredivisie · 2023 | 26 | €22.0M | €14.0M | fell |
| David Neres Eredivisie · 2018 | 21 | €20.0M | €36.0M | rose |
| Lukas Nmecha Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 23 | €12.0M | €12.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Jul 2025 | Ajax | Club Brugge | €6.0M | €8.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Wolves | Ajax | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 30 Aug 2024 | Ajax | Wolves | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 3 Aug 2023 | Man City U21 | Ajax | €14.0M | €10.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Man City U18 | Man City U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Man City Youth | Man City U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Sporting Yth. | Man City Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.