Mario Dorgeles
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mario Dorgeles's performance-implied value at EUR 1.5M-5.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 7.3M-17.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 5.8M-23.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.71x the positional average in the league (990 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 61
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 51.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €10.7M vs market €10.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +18% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 26% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 990 (32% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.27
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.16
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 51 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1533
- Opponent strength
- 1312
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- 26%
- Resale range (24m)
- €5.8M – €23.5M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 43 pts; changed club; team strength up (+193 Elo); league level up (+96 Elo); role change CM -> RM.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +37% (IQR +5% to +171%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 990 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–151%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | SC Braga | Liga Portugal | RM | 20 | 990 | 32% | 2 | 1 | 0.27 | 0.16 | 1312 | 1533 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | FC Nordsjaelland | Superliga | CM | 21 | 1497 | 76% | 2 | 2 | 0.24 | 0.17 | 1287 | 1341 | 0.38 |
| 2023/24 | FC Nordsjaelland | Superliga | CM | 15 | 484 | 24% | 1 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.17 | 1272 | 1444 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | FC Nordsjaelland | Superliga | CM | 10 | 231 | 12% | 0 | 1 | 0.39 | 0.28 | 1281 | 1352 | 0.47 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | SC Braga | 6 | 468 | 0 | 1 | 1365 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | SC Braga | 8 | 233 | 2 | 0 | 1547 |
| 2024/25 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Nordsjaelland | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FC Nordsjaelland | 3 | 150 | 0 | 0 | 1450 |
| 2023/24 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Nordsjaelland | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Nordsjaelland | 6 | 292 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wendel Premier Liga · 2021 | 24 | €17.0M | €24.0M | rose |
| Georginio Wijnaldum Eredivisie · 2014 | 24 | €7.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Sofyan Amrabat Eredivisie · 2018 | 22 | €4.5M | €14.5M | rose |
| Yari Verschaeren Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 23 | €8.5M | €3.0M | fell |
| Óliver Torres Liga Portugal · 2018 | 24 | €12.0M | €13.5M | flat |
| Dani de Wit Eredivisie · 2021 | 23 | €3.0M | €4.0M | rose |
| Fred Premier Liga · 2016 | 23 | €12.0M | €32.0M | rose |
| Abdülkadir Ömür Super Lig · 2020 | 21 | €12.5M | €10.5M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Jul 2025 | Nordsjaelland | Braga | €11.0M | €4.0M |
| 9 Aug 2022 | Right to Dream | Nordsjaelland | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.