Kelliano
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Kelliano's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.07x the positional average in the league (1407 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 61
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 20.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €779k vs market €800k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +8% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1407 (52% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.13
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.13
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 20 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1279
- Opponent strength
- 1353
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €471k – €1.7M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 20 pts; changed club; team strength up (+127 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -33% (IQR -38% to +81%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1407 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 18 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 54%–153%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 56%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RFK Akhmat Grozny | Premier Liga | DM | 23 | 1407 | 52% | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 1353 | 1279 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | CF Estrela Amadora | Liga Portugal | DM | 21 | 974 | 32% | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.17 | 1365 | 1152 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | CF Estrela Amadora | Liga Portugal | DM | 9 | 113 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 1395 | 1185 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | RFK Akhmat Grozny | 5 | 236 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beni Mukendi Liga Portugal · 2024 | 22 | €700k | €4.0M | rose |
| Yassin Oukili Eredivisie · 2023 | 22 | €600k | €900k | rose |
| Ambrosiy Chachua Premier Liga · 2017 | 23 | €500k | €250k | fell |
| Maksym Tretyakov Premier Liga · 2018 | 22 | €600k | €400k | fell |
| Dmytro Klyots Premier Liga · 2019 | 23 | €400k | €250k | fell |
| Lassana Coulibaly Jupiler Pro League · 2020 | 24 | €950k | €3.0M | rose |
| Mark Diemers Eredivisie · 2015 | 22 | €500k | €300k | fell |
| Willyan Liga Portugal · 2016 | 22 | €750k | €500k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Jul 2025 | Estrela Amadora | Akhmat Grozny | Free / loan | €400k |
| 19 Jul 2023 | 1º de Agosto | Estrela Amadora | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | 1º Agosto U20 | 1º de Agosto | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.