Pau Navarro
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Pau Navarro's performance-implied value at EUR 5.7M-21.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 12.3M-27.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 9.6M-29.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 42
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 73.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €19.0M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +18% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 22% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1924 (56% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.02
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 73 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1544
- Opponent strength
- 1485
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- 22%
- Resale range (24m)
- €9.6M – €29.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 29 pts; role change RB -> CB; relative output down 31% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +10% (IQR -11% to +89%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | CB | 23 | 1924 | 56% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1485 | 1544 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | RB | 17 | 917 | 27% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1465 | 1597 | 0.95 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Villarreal CF | 3 | 187 | 0 | 0 | 1493 |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Villarreal CF | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Villarreal CF | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matija Nastasić Bundesliga · 2015 | 22 | €14.0M | €12.0M | flat |
| Sinaly Diomandé Ligue 1 · 2023 | 22 | €9.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Stefan Posch Bundesliga · 2019 | 22 | €5.5M | €13.0M | rose |
| Malick Thiaw Serie A · 2023 | 22 | €20.0M | €18.0M | flat |
| Igor Julio Serie A · 2022 | 24 | €14.0M | €17.0M | rose |
| Chadi Riad Laliga · 2024 | 21 | €15.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Mattia De Sciglio Serie A · 2016 | 24 | €5.0M | €14.0M | rose |
| Diogo Dalot Premier League · 2022 | 23 | €20.0M | €35.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Nov 2024 | Villarreal CF B | Villarreal | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Feb 2024 | FC Villarreal C | Villarreal CF B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Villarreal U19 | FC Villarreal C | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Villarreal Yth. | Villarreal U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | CD Roda Youth | Villarreal Yth. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.