Carlos Espí
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Carlos Espí's performance-implied value at EUR 2.3M-14.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 17.1M-31.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 11.9M-40.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.42x the positional average in the league (1339 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 35
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 52.5th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 20.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €24.0M vs market €20.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +7% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 34% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1339 (39% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.74
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.72
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 53 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1420
- Opponent strength
- 1463
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 34%
- Resale range (24m)
- €11.9M – €40.9M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +25% (IQR +5% to +39%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1339 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Levante UD | Laliga | ST | 25 | 1339 | 39% | 11 | 0 | 0.74 | 0.72 | 1463 | 1420 | 0.95 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Levante UD | 2 | 99 | 2 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrik Schick Serie A · 2017 | 21 | €15.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Gianluca Scamacca Serie A · 2021 | 22 | €15.0M | €22.0M | rose |
| El Bilal Touré Laliga · 2023 | 22 | €12.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Nicolò Cambiaghi Serie A · 2023 | 23 | €8.0M | €8.5M | flat |
| Nico González Bundesliga · 2021 | 23 | €22.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Largie Ramazani Laliga · 2023 | 22 | €6.0M | €7.5M | rose |
| Pierre-Michel Lasogga Bundesliga · 2014 | 23 | €9.0M | €4.5M | fell |
| Arnaud Kalimuendo Ligue 1 · 2021 | 19 | €10.0M | €22.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Atl. Levante | Levante | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Feb 2024 | Levante U19 | Atl. Levante | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Alzira U19 | Levante U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.