Joaquín Panichelli
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Joaquín Panichelli's performance-implied value at EUR 5.0M-26.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 27.8M-49.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 19.6M-54.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.10x the positional average in the league (2196 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 13
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 78.3th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €40.1M vs market €35.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -20% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2196 (72% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.70
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.56
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 78 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1502
- Opponent strength
- 1475
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €19.6M – €54.6M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -33% (IQR -47% to +54%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | ST | 27 | 2196 | 72% | 16 | 1 | 0.70 | 0.56 | 1475 | 1502 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | Deportivo Alavés | Laliga | ST | 8 | 222 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 1435 | 1431 | 1.00 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | RC Strasbourg Alsace | 2 | 95 | 0 | 0 | 1346 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mauro Icardi Serie A · 2016 | 23 | €32.0M | €95.0M | rose |
| Amine Gouiri Ligue 1 · 2022 | 22 | €42.0M | €25.0M | fell |
| Federico Bernardeschi Serie A · 2017 | 23 | €30.0M | €45.0M | rose |
| Stevan Jovetić Serie A · 2013 | 24 | €28.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Terem Moffi Ligue 1 · 2023 | 24 | €20.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Aleksandr Kokorin Premier Liga · 2014 | 23 | €18.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Taty Castellanos Laliga · 2023 | 25 | €15.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Thijs Dallinga Ligue 1 · 2024 | 24 | €18.0M | €9.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Jul 2025 | Alavés | R. Strasbourg | €17.0M | €7.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | CD Mirandés | Alavés | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 19 Aug 2024 | Alavés | CD Mirandés | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Alavés B | Alavés | Unknown | €300k |
| 13 Jan 2023 | River Plate II | Alavés B | €3.3M | €25k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | River Plate U20 | River Plate II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 3 Feb 2020 | CA Atalaya | River Plate U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2018 | Racing U19 | CA Atalaya | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2017 | Belgrano JV | Racing U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2016 | Racing U19 | Belgrano JV | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.