Matviy Ponomarenko
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Matviy Ponomarenko's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-3.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 9.3M-19.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 6.2M-28.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.32x the positional average in the league (1063 minutes, league coefficient 0.25). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 38
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 33.9th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 20.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €15.3M vs market €12.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +16% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 28% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1063 (39% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 1.10
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.67
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 34 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1324
- Opponent strength
- 1170
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 28%
- Resale range (24m)
- €6.2M – €28.6M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +60% (IQR -19% to +160%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1063 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 18 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 87%–104%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 94%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dynamo Kyiv | Premier Liga | ST | 15 | 1063 | 39% | 13 | 0 | 1.10 | 0.67 | 1170 | 1324 | 0.25 |
| 2024/25 | Dynamo Kyiv | Premier Liga | ST | 2 | 52 | 2% | 1 | 0 | 1.73 | 0.50 | 1216 | 1406 | 0.28 |
| 2023/24 | Dynamo Kyiv | Premier Liga | ST | 8 | 68 | 3% | 1 | 0 | 1.32 | 0.46 | 1250 | 1458 | 0.34 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Ukrainian Cup | Dynamo Kyiv | 1 | 90 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Dynamo Kyiv | 3 | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1318 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Dynamo Kyiv | 1 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1532 |
| 2024/25 | Ukrainian Cup | Dynamo Kyiv | 1 | 31 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Dynamo Kyiv | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1430 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semih Kılıçsoy Super Lig · 2024 | 19 | €12.0M | €11.0M | flat |
| Luis Palma Super League 1 · 2023 | 23 | €2.5M | €3.0M | rose |
| Mika Biereth Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 21 | €7.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Georgios Koutsias Super League 1 · 2023 | 19 | €2.0M | €4.5M | rose |
| Yuito Suzuki Superliga · 2024 | 23 | €6.0M | €24.0M | rose |
| Kerem Aktürkoğlu Super Lig · 2021 | 23 | €3.5M | €15.0M | rose |
| Güven Yalçın Super Lig · 2022 | 23 | €3.0M | €1.7M | fell |
| Béni Makouana Premier Liga · 2024 | 22 | €1.2M | €200k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Dynamo Kyiv U19 | Dynamo Kyiv | Unknown | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Dynamo Kyiv U17 | Dynamo Kyiv U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Zorya U19 | Dynamo Kyiv U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 23 Aug 2022 | Dynamo Kyiv U17 | Zorya U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.