Luca Reggiani
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Luca Reggiani's performance-implied value at EUR 1.3M-24.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 7.2M-33.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 6.9M-44.5M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Above average | 65.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 18.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very unfavorable | est. €20.7M vs market €10.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very high | +121% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Very High | breakout probability 62% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 513 (17% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.17
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.06
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 66 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1656
- Opponent strength
- 1440
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Very High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 62%
- Resale range (24m)
- €6.9M – €44.5M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +118% (IQR +36% to +334%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 513 league minutes last season.
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | CB | 8 | 513 | 17% | 1 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.06 | 1440 | 1656 | 0.94 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1652 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Kalulu Serie A · 2021 | 21 | €7.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Giorgio Scalvini Serie A · 2022 | 19 | €10.0M | €45.0M | rose |
| Kassoum Ouattara Ligue 1 · 2024 | 20 | €8.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Marcelo Saracchi Bundesliga · 2019 | 21 | €10.0M | €5.5M | fell |
| Dan-Axel Zagadou Bundesliga · 2018 | 19 | €5.0M | €31.5M | rose |
| Lewis Hall Premier League · 2024 | 20 | €18.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Colin Dagba Ligue 1 · 2019 | 21 | €12.0M | €12.0M | flat |
| Jeanuël Belocian Ligue 1 · 2023 | 18 | €7.0M | €15.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Mar 2026 | B. Dortmund U19 | Dortmund | Unknown | €5.0M |
| 1 Jul 2024 | B. Dortmund U17 | B. Dortmund U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Feb 2024 | Sassuolo U17 | B. Dortmund U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2023 | Sassuolo Yth. | Sassuolo U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Castelvetro Y. | Sassuolo Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.