Giorgio Scalvini
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Giorgio Scalvini's performance-implied value at EUR 8.1M-32.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 28.1M-49.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 24.0M-60.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 49
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 81.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €39.7M vs market €38.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +4% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 17% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1817 (53% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.20
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.12
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 81 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1588
- Opponent strength
- 1475
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 17%
- Resale range (24m)
- €24.0M – €60.0M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -28% (IQR -40% to +8%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Atalanta BC | Serie A | CB | 24 | 1817 | 53% | 3 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.12 | 1475 | 1588 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Atalanta BC | Serie A | CB | 6 | 274 | 8% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1551 | 1679 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Atalanta BC | Serie A | CB | 33 | 2553 | 75% | 1 | 3 | 0.14 | 0.10 | 1489 | 1709 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | Atalanta BC | Serie A | CB | 32 | 2343 | 69% | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.09 | 1492 | 1556 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | Atalanta BC | Serie A | CB | 18 | 760 | 22% | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.07 | 1440 | 1566 | 0.89 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Atalanta BC | 3 | 234 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Atalanta BC | 3 | 170 | 0 | 0 | 1789 |
| 2024/25 | Supercoppa Italiana | Atalanta BC | 1 | 62 | 0 | 0 | 1833 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Atalanta BC | 1 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 1804 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Atalanta BC | 8 | 480 | 1 | 0 | 1633 |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Atalanta BC | 3 | 191 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | Atalanta BC | 2 | 128 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | Atalanta BC | 1 | 66 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Atalanta BC | 2 | 48 | 0 | 0 | 1688 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Sessegnon Bundesliga · 2021 | 21 | €18.0M | €18.0M | flat |
| Pierre Kalulu Serie A · 2022 | 22 | €28.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Stefan de Vrij Serie A · 2017 | 25 | €27.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| Merih Demiral Serie A · 2022 | 24 | €25.0M | €16.0M | fell |
| Jorge Ligue 1 · 2018 | 22 | €12.0M | €3.2M | fell |
| Mouctar Diakhaby Laliga · 2019 | 23 | €20.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Gianluca Mancini Serie A · 2019 | 23 | €22.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Davide Calabria Serie A · 2018 | 22 | €13.0M | €9.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Jul 2021 | Atalanta U19 | Atalanta | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Sept 2020 | Atalanta U17 | Atalanta U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Atalanta Youth | Atalanta U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Brescia Youth | Atalanta Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Palazzolo Jun. | Brescia Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.