Lewis Hall
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Lewis Hall's performance-implied value at EUR 31.6M-51.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 27.3M-56.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 27.5M-52.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 23
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 93.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €45.0M vs market €40.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -11% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 5% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2180 (64% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.08
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 94 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1631
- Opponent strength
- 1593
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- 5%
- Resale range (24m)
- €27.5M – €52.0M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 44% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -32% (IQR -56% to +2%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Newcastle United | Premier League | LB | 30 | 2180 | 64% | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 1593 | 1631 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Newcastle United | Premier League | LB | 27 | 2193 | 64% | 0 | 5 | 0.21 | 0.17 | 1572 | 1653 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Newcastle United | Premier League | LB | 18 | 775 | 23% | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.11 | 1507 | 1610 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | LB | 9 | 658 | 19% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1627 | 1579 | 1.23 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Newcastle United | 10 | 648 | 0 | 1 | 1688 |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Newcastle United | 3 | 231 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Newcastle United | 1 | 21 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Newcastle United | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 1698 |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Newcastle United | 1 | 28 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Hickey Premier League · 2023 | 21 | €25.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Davinson Sánchez Premier League · 2019 | 23 | €55.0M | €32.0M | fell |
| Cristian Romero Premier League · 2022 | 24 | €48.0M | €60.0M | rose |
| Lisandro Martínez Premier League · 2023 | 25 | €50.0M | €40.0M | fell |
| Sergio Reguilón Premier League · 2021 | 25 | €25.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Renan Lodi Laliga · 2020 | 22 | €31.5M | €30.0M | flat |
| Yeray Álvarez Laliga · 2017 | 22 | €15.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Mason Holgate Premier League · 2021 | 25 | €20.0M | €9.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Chelsea | Newcastle | €33.0M | €18.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Newcastle | Chelsea | Free / loan | €18.0M |
| 22 Aug 2023 | Chelsea | Newcastle | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Chelsea U21 | Chelsea | Unknown | €10.0M |
| 1 Jan 2022 | Chelsea U18 | Chelsea U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Chelsea Youth | Chelsea U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.