Amorim
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Amorim's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-3.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 6.1M-12.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.9M-18.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.81x the positional average in the league (2188 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 53
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 31.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €9.0M vs market €8.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +17% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 24% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2188 (64% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.08
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.18
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 32 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1309
- Opponent strength
- 1337
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 24%
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.9M – €18.6M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +67% (IQR +27% to +99%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–151%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Alverca | Liga Portugal | CM | 19 | 1634 | 53% | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.18 | 1337 | 1277 | 0.58 |
| 2025/26 | Genoa CFC | Serie A | CM | 11 | 554 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 1513 | 1406 | 0.93 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gustavo Assunção Liga Portugal · 2021 | 21 | €7.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Ibrahima Diallo Ligue 1 · 2020 | 21 | €9.0M | €10.0M | flat |
| Jean-Ricner Bellegarde Ligue 1 · 2021 | 23 | €5.5M | €10.0M | rose |
| Okay Yokuşlu Super Lig · 2016 | 22 | €4.5M | €7.5M | rose |
| Junior Dina Ebimbe Ligue 1 · 2021 | 21 | €6.0M | €10.0M | rose |
| Sebastian Szymanski Premier Liga · 2020 | 21 | €5.4M | €14.0M | rose |
| Martim Neto Liga Portugal · 2024 | 21 | €3.0M | €4.0M | rose |
| Enzo Le Fée Ligue 1 · 2022 | 22 | €6.0M | €18.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Jan 2026 | Alverca | Genoa | €7.5M | €2.5M |
| 11 Jul 2025 | Fortaleza U20 | Alverca | €310k | €50k |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Athletic | Fortaleza U20 | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Jan 2025 | Fortaleza U20 | Athletic | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.