Newerton
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Newerton's performance-implied value at EUR 1.6M-11.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 5.6M-11.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.8M-15.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.63x the positional average in the league (1420 minutes, league coefficient 0.25). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 37
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 51th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €8.9M vs market €7.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +15% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 17% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1420 (53% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.44
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.26
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 51 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1420
- Opponent strength
- 1143
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 17%
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.8M – €15.6M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 28 pts; relative output down 24% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +39% (IQR -43% to +116%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1420 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 18 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 87%–104%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 94%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | Premier Liga | LW | 23 | 1420 | 53% | 5 | 2 | 0.44 | 0.26 | 1143 | 1420 | 0.25 |
| 2024/25 | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | Premier Liga | LW | 17 | 656 | 24% | 4 | 2 | 0.82 | 0.35 | 1127 | 1414 | 0.28 |
| 2023/24 | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | Premier Liga | LW | 15 | 668 | 25% | 1 | 1 | 0.27 | 0.23 | 1284 | 1497 | 0.34 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 6 | 366 | 1 | 0 | 1345 |
| 2025/26 | Ukrainian Cup | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 2 | 108 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 1311 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 4 | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1598 |
| 2024/25 | Ukrainian Cup | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 4 | 218 | 0 | 0 | 1652 |
| 2023/24 | Ukrainian Cup | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 1 | 81 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1540 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohamed Daramy Superliga · 2021 | 19 | €4.0M | €6.0M | rose |
| Gustav Isaksen Superliga · 2022 | 21 | €4.5M | €12.0M | rose |
| Lassina Traoré Premier Liga · 2023 | 22 | €7.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Halil Dervişoğlu Super Lig · 2022 | 23 | €3.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Danylo Sikan Premier Liga · 2024 | 23 | €7.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Hyun-jun Yang Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 22 | €2.0M | €5.0M | rose |
| Bright Osayi-Samuel Super Lig · 2021 | 23 | €3.4M | €7.0M | rose |
| Myron van Brederode Eredivisie · 2024 | 21 | €3.5M | €4.5M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Jul 2023 | São Paulo U20 | Shakhtar D. | €3.6M | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2023 | São Paulo U17 | São Paulo U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.