Matías Moreno
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Matías Moreno's performance-implied value at EUR 2.9M-9.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 4.3M-10.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.8M-15.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 71
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 60.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €6.7M vs market €6.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very high | +35% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 35% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2256 (66% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.03
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 60 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1420
- Opponent strength
- 1459
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 35%
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.8M – €15.0M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +26% (IQR -20% to +115%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Levante UD | Laliga | CB | 28 | 2256 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1459 | 1420 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | ACF Fiorentina | Serie A | CB | 4 | 144 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1706 | 1580 | 0.99 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Levante UD | 1 | 25 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felix Uduokhai Bundesliga · 2020 | 23 | €6.8M | €10.0M | rose |
| Marlon Ligue 1 · 2018 | 23 | €6.0M | €6.5M | flat |
| Ruan Serie A · 2023 | 24 | €4.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Milos Veljkovic Bundesliga · 2017 | 22 | €3.0M | €8.0M | rose |
| Víctor Chust Laliga · 2022 | 22 | €2.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Sebastian Walukiewicz Serie A · 2024 | 24 | €2.5M | €5.0M | rose |
| Enock Kwateng Ligue 1 · 2019 | 22 | €4.0M | €3.2M | fell |
| Nathan Aké Premier League · 2016 | 21 | €4.5M | €15.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Levante | Fiorentina | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 11 Jul 2025 | Fiorentina | Levante | Free / loan | €3.4M |
| 30 Aug 2024 | Belgrano | Fiorentina | €5.0M | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Belgrano II | Belgrano | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2023 | Belgrano U20 | Belgrano II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.