Pape Moussa Fall
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Pape Moussa Fall's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-2.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.2M-6.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.8M-9.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.42x the positional average in the league (1311 minutes, league coefficient 0.65). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 29
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 25.8th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €4.7M vs market €3.5M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +13% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 24% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1311 (49% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.62
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.72
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 26 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1297
- Opponent strength
- 1370
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 24%
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.8M – €9.3M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -6% (IQR -41% to +93%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1311 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 78 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–126%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 60%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RAAL La Louvière | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 21 | 1311 | 49% | 8 | 1 | 0.62 | 0.72 | 1370 | 1296 | 0.65 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Relegation Play Offs | RAAL La Louvière | 6 | 461 | 3 | 0 | 1265 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Griffin Yow Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 22 | €4.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Dorgeles Nene Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 21 | €3.5M | €12.0M | rose |
| Beykan Simsek Super Lig · 2016 | 21 | €2.0M | €500k | fell |
| Halil Dervişoğlu Eredivisie · 2020 | 21 | €1.8M | €3.0M | rose |
| Ahmed Hassan Liga Portugal · 2015 | 22 | €4.8M | €3.0M | fell |
| Koki Saito Eredivisie · 2023 | 22 | €3.0M | €4.0M | rose |
| Lyle Foster Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 23 | €9.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Armand Laurienté Ligue 1 · 2021 | 23 | €6.0M | €18.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | La Louvière | FC Metz | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 25 Jul 2025 | FC Metz | La Louvière | Free / loan | €500k |
| 30 Jun 2025 | RFC Seraing | FC Metz | Free / loan | €500k |
| 29 Aug 2024 | FC Metz | RFC Seraing | Free / loan | €400k |
| 26 Jul 2024 | RFC Seraing | FC Metz | Free / loan | €400k |
| 28 Aug 2023 | Génération Foot | RFC Seraing | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Gesfoot | Génération Foot | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.