Ibrahim Mbaye
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ibrahim Mbaye's performance-implied value at EUR 8.3M-37.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 23.1M-47.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 25.4M-86.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.44x the positional average in the league (998 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 68
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 73.6th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 18.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very unfavorable | est. €43.7M vs market €30.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very high | +72% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Very High | breakout probability 69% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 998 (33% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.45
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.17
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 74 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1818
- Opponent strength
- 1410
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Very High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 69%
- Resale range (24m)
- €25.4M – €86.5M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +26% (IQR +3% to +200%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 998 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | RW | 24 | 998 | 33% | 3 | 2 | 0.45 | 0.17 | 1410 | 1817 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | RW | 9 | 336 | 11% | 1 | 1 | 0.54 | 0.18 | 1368 | 1812 | 0.88 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Africa Cup Of Nations | Senegal | 6 | 168 | 1 | 2 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Senegal | 3 | 108 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 4 | 101 | 0 | 0 | 1760 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Super Cup | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1564 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodrygo Laliga · 2020 | 19 | €45.0M | €60.0M | rose |
| Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain Premier League · 2015 | 22 | €20.0M | €22.0M | flat |
| Kingsley Coman Bundesliga · 2016 | 20 | €17.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| Jacob Bruun Larsen Bundesliga · 2019 | 21 | €15.0M | €5.5M | fell |
| Moussa Diaby Ligue 1 · 2019 | 20 | €12.0M | €38.0M | rose |
| Hugo Ekitiké Ligue 1 · 2023 | 21 | €20.0M | €75.0M | rose |
| Dominic Solanke Premier League · 2018 | 21 | €10.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Christian Atsu Liga Portugal · 2013 | 21 | €6.0M | €5.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Paris SG U23 | PSG | Unknown | €3.0M |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Paris SG U19 | Paris SG U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2024 | Paris SG U17 | Paris SG U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2023 | PSG Youth | Paris SG U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Versailles Yth. | PSG Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.