Hugo Ekitiké
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Hugo Ekitiké's performance-implied value at EUR 43.0M-83.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 63.1M-110.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 50.6M-88.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.91x the positional average in the league (1811 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 8
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 96.2th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €96.4M vs market €80.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -23% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1811 (53% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.74
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.46
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 96 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1682
- Opponent strength
- 1560
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €50.6M – €88.9M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 31 pts; changed club; team strength up (+108 Elo); league level up (+126 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -11% (IQR -42% to +12%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Liverpool FC | Premier League | ST | 28 | 1811 | 53% | 11 | 4 | 0.75 | 0.46 | 1560 | 1682 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | ST | 33 | 2582 | 84% | 15 | 8 | 0.80 | 0.56 | 1508 | 1574 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | ST | 14 | 719 | 23% | 4 | 2 | 0.75 | 0.66 | 1571 | 1498 | 1.01 |
| 2023/24 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | ST | 1 | 8 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 1396 | 1700 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | ST | 25 | 1155 | 34% | 3 | 4 | 0.55 | 0.27 | 1399 | 1672 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | Stade Reims | Ligue 1 | ST | 24 | 1276 | 37% | 10 | 4 | 0.99 | 0.87 | 1425 | 1417 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | Stade Reims | Ligue 1 | ST | 2 | 86 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.46 | 1377 | 1373 | 0.75 |
| 2020/21 | Vejle Boldklub | Superliga | ST | 3 | 53 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.65 | 1328 | 1155 | 0.43 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Liverpool FC | 12 | 838 | 3 | 1 | 1649 |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Liverpool FC | 3 | 111 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | Community Shield | Liverpool FC | 1 | 71 | 1 | 0 | 1620 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Eintracht Frankfurt | 12 | 814 | 4 | 3 | 1542 |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | Eintracht Frankfurt | 3 | 248 | 3 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 4 | 58 | 0 | 0 | 1655 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Isak Premier League · 2023 | 24 | €70.0M | €120M | rose |
| Marcus Rashford Premier League · 2022 | 25 | €60.0M | €60.0M | flat |
| Moussa Diaby Premier League · 2024 | 25 | €55.0M | €25.0M | fell |
| Heung-min Son Premier League · 2019 | 27 | €80.0M | €85.0M | flat |
| Anthony Martial Premier League · 2021 | 26 | €45.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Harry Kane Premier League · 2019 | 26 | €150M | €120M | fell |
| Romelu Lukaku Premier League · 2019 | 26 | €75.0M | €100M | rose |
| Gonçalo Guedes Laliga · 2019 | 23 | €40.0M | €25.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Jul 2025 | Frankfurt | Liverpool | €95.0M | €75.0M |
| 1 Jul 2024 | PSG | Frankfurt | €31.5M | €20.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Frankfurt | PSG | Free / loan | €20.0M |
| 1 Feb 2024 | PSG | Frankfurt | Free / loan | €15.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Stade Reims | PSG | €28.5M | €20.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | PSG | Stade Reims | Free / loan | €20.0M |
| 16 Jul 2022 | Stade Reims | PSG | Free / loan | €28.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Stade Reims B | Stade Reims | Unknown | €600k |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Vejle BK | Stade Reims B | Free / loan | €600k |
| 29 Jan 2021 | Stade Reims B | Vejle BK | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Stade Reims U17 | Stade Reims B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Reims Yth. | Stade Reims U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.