Alexander Nübel
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Alexander Nübel's performance-implied value at EUR 9.5M-24.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 5.7M-14.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.4M-9.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 16
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 93.2th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €9.6M vs market €12.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -42% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3060 (100% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.03
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.03
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 93 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1567
- Opponent strength
- 1485
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.4M – €9.8M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -39% (IQR -44% to -30%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | GK | 34 | 3060 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 1485 | 1567 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | GK | 34 | 3060 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 1491 | 1531 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | GK | 30 | 2700 | 88% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1529 | 1637 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | GK | 38 | 3420 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1433 | 1485 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | GK | 38 | 3420 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1419 | 1599 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | GK | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1500 | 1898 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga | GK | 26 | 2316 | 76% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1519 | 1415 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga | GK | 18 | 1589 | 52% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1499 | 1482 | 1.05 |
| 2017/18 | FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga | GK | 1 | 45 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1482 | 1618 | 1.04 |
| 2015/16 | FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga | GK | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1465 | 1543 | 1.02 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | VfB Stuttgart | 11 | 990 | 0 | 1 | 1486 |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | VfB Stuttgart | 3 | 330 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | VfB Stuttgart | 7 | 630 | 0 | 0 | 1614 |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | VfB Stuttgart | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1761 |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | VfB Stuttgart | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | AS Monaco | 8 | 750 | 0 | 0 | 1493 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | AS Monaco | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | 1670 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | AS Monaco | 7 | 630 | 0 | 0 | 1533 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | AS Monaco | 3 | 300 | 0 | 0 | 1535 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Bayern Munich | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1665 |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | Bayern Munich | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | FC Schalke 04 | 3 | 300 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Dfb Pokal | FC Schalke 04 | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | FC Schalke 04 | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1528 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Flekken Bundesliga · 2023 | 30 | €10.0M | €10.0M | flat |
| Brice Samba Ligue 1 · 2024 | 30 | €15.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Samir Handanovic Serie A · 2015 | 31 | €15.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Ralf Fährmann Bundesliga · 2018 | 30 | €13.0M | €1.6M | fell |
| Steve Mandanda Ligue 1 · 2013 | 28 | €17.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Oliver Baumann Bundesliga · 2019 | 29 | €8.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Igor Akinfeev Premier Liga · 2015 | 29 | €15.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Stéphane Ruffier Ligue 1 · 2015 | 29 | €10.0M | €6.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Stuttgart | Bayern Munich | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 25 Jul 2023 | Bayern Munich | Stuttgart | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Monaco | Bayern Munich | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Bayern Munich | Monaco | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 1 Jul 2020 | FC Schalke 04 | Bayern Munich | Free / loan | €9.5M |
| 27 Aug 2015 | SC Paderborn | FC Schalke 04 | €600k | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Paderborn U19 | SC Paderborn | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Paderborn U17 | Paderborn U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Paderborn Yth. | Paderborn U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2005 | TSV Tudorf Yth. | Paderborn Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.