Vanja Milinković-Savić
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Vanja Milinković-Savić's performance-implied value at EUR 8.1M-34.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 12.6M-23.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 6.6M-15.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 4
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 88.8th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €17.3M vs market €20.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -52% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2430 (71% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.04
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.02
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 89 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1618
- Opponent strength
- 1513
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €6.6M – €15.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 26 pts; changed club; team strength up (+160 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -38% (IQR -57% to -29%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | SSC Napoli | Serie A | GK | 27 | 2430 | 71% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 1513 | 1618 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Torino FC | Serie A | GK | 37 | 3330 | 97% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1500 | 1458 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Torino FC | Serie A | GK | 36 | 3240 | 95% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1481 | 1510 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | Torino FC | Serie A | GK | 38 | 3420 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1470 | 1468 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | Torino FC | Serie A | GK | 27 | 2430 | 71% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1468 | 1423 | 0.89 |
| 2020/21 | Torino FC | Serie A | GK | 5 | 450 | 13% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1480 | 1373 | 0.90 |
| 2018/19 | SPAL | Serie A | GK | 2 | 165 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1632 | 1339 | 0.78 |
| 2017/18 | Torino FC | Serie A | GK | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1374 | 1481 | 0.86 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | SSC Napoli | 7 | 630 | 0 | 0 | 1575 |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | SSC Napoli | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Supercoppa Italiana | SSC Napoli | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1636 |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Torino FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Torino FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | Torino FC | 4 | 390 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | Torino FC | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Italy Cup | Torino FC | 3 | 330 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Standard Liège | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | 1593 |
| 2018/19 | Italy Cup | SPAL | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Italy Cup | Torino FC | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ivan Provedel Serie A · 2024 | 30 | €14.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Jan Oblak Laliga · 2023 | 30 | €35.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Juan Musso Serie A · 2022 | 28 | €18.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Simon Mignolet Premier League · 2017 | 29 | €12.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Yassine Bounou Laliga · 2022 | 31 | €18.0M | €9.0M | fell |
| Anthony Lopes Ligue 1 · 2018 | 28 | €20.0M | €17.5M | flat |
| Alex Meret Serie A · 2024 | 27 | €12.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Fernando Muslera Super Lig · 2014 | 28 | €16.0M | €15.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Torino | Napoli | €6.0M | €20.0M |
| 30 Jun 2026 | Napoli | Torino | Free / loan | €20.0M |
| 26 Jul 2025 | Torino | Napoli | Free / loan | €16.0M |
| 30 Jun 2020 | Standard Liège | Torino | Free / loan | €725k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Torino | Standard Liège | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Ascoli | Torino | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 31 Jan 2019 | Torino | Ascoli | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 30 Jan 2019 | SPAL | Torino | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 6 Jul 2018 | Torino | SPAL | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Lechia Gdansk | Torino | €2.6M | €1.5M |
| 1 Jan 2016 | Man Utd | Lechia Gdansk | Free / loan | €750k |
| 30 Jun 2015 | Vojvodina | Man Utd | Free / loan | €750k |
| 2 Jul 2014 | Man Utd | Vojvodina | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Vojvodina | Man Utd | €1.8M | Data unavailable |
| 2 Apr 2014 | Vojvodina II | Vojvodina | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Vojvodina U19 | Vojvodina II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2006 | GAK Youth | Vojvodina U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 5 Oct 2004 | Unknown | GAK Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.