Talisca

32 yrs · Attacking midfielder (also CM, ST) · Brazil
Fenerbahce · Super Lig · Foot: left · Height: 190 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€7.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€1.8M – €6.3M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€1.9M – €4.7M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€1.3M – €3.4M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€4.4M – €2.9M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€1.8M – €6.3M
Model value (performance-implied)€1.9M – €4.7M
Projected value (24 months)€1.3M – €3.4M
Dashed line: current market value (€7.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Talisca's performance-implied value at EUR 1.9M-4.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.8M-6.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.3M-3.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.22x the positional average in the league (1957 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 3

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAbove average72.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable32.4 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €4.0M vs market €7.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-69% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.4
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €28.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1957 (64% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
1.06
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.49
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
73 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.40 (rank 18)
Team strength (Elo)
1477
Opponent strength
1256
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€1.3M – €3.4M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 32 pts; role change ST -> AM; relative output up 68% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -61% (IQR -71% to -46%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
35 (MID)
Relative output kept
77%–144%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
69%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26FenerbahceSuper LigAM30195764%1941.060.49125614770.40
2024/25FenerbahceSuper LigST16102832%910.880.38126715030.39
2017/18Beşiktaş Jimnastik KulübüSuper LigAM33268988%1470.700.36135516340.68
2016/17Beşiktaş Jimnastik KulübüSuper LigAM22176158%1320.770.40135716100.62
2015/16SL BenficaLiga PortugalCM2172624%300.370.14131717120.58
2014/15SL BenficaLiga PortugalAM31184660%920.540.30138517140.68

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Europa LeagueFenerbahce8486411484
2025/26Uefa Champions League QualifyingFenerbahce3133101638
2024/25Uefa Europa LeagueFenerbahce4157001496
2017/18Uefa Champions LeagueBeşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü8539401673
2016/17Uefa Europa LeagueBeşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü6496241530
2016/17Uefa Champions LeagueBeşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü3136101643
2015/16Uefa Champions LeagueSL Benfica5216201551
2015/16Supercup Candido De OliveiraSL Benfica158001593
2014/15Uefa Champions LeagueSL Benfica6321101611
2014/15Supercup Candido De OliveiraSL Benfica169001363

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Konstantinos Fortounis
Super League 1 · 2024
32€3.0M€1.5Mfell
Maurício
Super League 1 · 2018
30€3.5M€2.4Mfell
Victor Moses
Premier Liga · 2021
31€6.5M€2.0Mfell
Sérgio Oliveira
Super Lig · 2023
31€7.0M€2.5Mfell
Salih Uçan
Super Lig · 2023
29€4.7M€2.0Mfell
Niclas Eliasson
Super League 1 · 2024
29€4.5M€3.0Mfell
Viktor Claesson
Superliga · 2024
32€4.5M€1.0Mfell
Alejandro Domínguez
Super League 1 · 2015
34€2.0M€500kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
27 Jan 2025Al-NassrFenerbahçeFree / loan€12.0M
1 Jul 2021GuaZ FCAl-Nassr€8.0M€10.0M
1 Jan 2019BenficaGZ Evergrande€19.2M€25.0M
31 Dec 2018GZ EvergrandeBenficaFree / loan€25.0M
1 Jul 2018BenficaGZ EvergrandeFree / loan€22.0M
30 Jun 2018BesiktasBenficaFree / loan€22.0M
23 Aug 2016BenficaBesiktasFree / loan€7.5M
5 Jul 2014EC BahiaBenfica€4.8M€400k
1 Jan 2013Bahia U20EC BahiaUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Talisca · MoneyballAI