
Talisca
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Talisca's performance-implied value at EUR 1.9M-4.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.8M-6.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.3M-3.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.22x the positional average in the league (1957 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 3
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 72.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €4.0M vs market €7.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -69% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1957 (64% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 1.06
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.49
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 73 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1477
- Opponent strength
- 1256
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.3M – €3.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 32 pts; role change ST -> AM; relative output up 68% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -61% (IQR -71% to -46%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 35 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–144%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 69%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fenerbahce | Super Lig | AM | 30 | 1957 | 64% | 19 | 4 | 1.06 | 0.49 | 1256 | 1477 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Fenerbahce | Super Lig | ST | 16 | 1028 | 32% | 9 | 1 | 0.88 | 0.38 | 1267 | 1503 | 0.39 |
| 2017/18 | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | Super Lig | AM | 33 | 2689 | 88% | 14 | 7 | 0.70 | 0.36 | 1355 | 1634 | 0.68 |
| 2016/17 | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | Super Lig | AM | 22 | 1761 | 58% | 13 | 2 | 0.77 | 0.40 | 1357 | 1610 | 0.62 |
| 2015/16 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | CM | 21 | 726 | 24% | 3 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.14 | 1317 | 1712 | 0.58 |
| 2014/15 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | AM | 31 | 1846 | 60% | 9 | 2 | 0.54 | 0.30 | 1385 | 1714 | 0.68 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Fenerbahce | 8 | 486 | 4 | 1 | 1484 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Fenerbahce | 3 | 133 | 1 | 0 | 1638 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Fenerbahce | 4 | 157 | 0 | 0 | 1496 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | 8 | 539 | 4 | 0 | 1673 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | 6 | 496 | 2 | 4 | 1530 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Champions League | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | 3 | 136 | 1 | 0 | 1643 |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Champions League | SL Benfica | 5 | 216 | 2 | 0 | 1551 |
| 2015/16 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | SL Benfica | 1 | 58 | 0 | 0 | 1593 |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Champions League | SL Benfica | 6 | 321 | 1 | 0 | 1611 |
| 2014/15 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | SL Benfica | 1 | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1363 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Konstantinos Fortounis Super League 1 · 2024 | 32 | €3.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Maurício Super League 1 · 2018 | 30 | €3.5M | €2.4M | fell |
| Victor Moses Premier Liga · 2021 | 31 | €6.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Sérgio Oliveira Super Lig · 2023 | 31 | €7.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Salih Uçan Super Lig · 2023 | 29 | €4.7M | €2.0M | fell |
| Niclas Eliasson Super League 1 · 2024 | 29 | €4.5M | €3.0M | fell |
| Viktor Claesson Superliga · 2024 | 32 | €4.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Alejandro Domínguez Super League 1 · 2015 | 34 | €2.0M | €500k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Jan 2025 | Al-Nassr | Fenerbahçe | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | GuaZ FC | Al-Nassr | €8.0M | €10.0M |
| 1 Jan 2019 | Benfica | GZ Evergrande | €19.2M | €25.0M |
| 31 Dec 2018 | GZ Evergrande | Benfica | Free / loan | €25.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Benfica | GZ Evergrande | Free / loan | €22.0M |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Besiktas | Benfica | Free / loan | €22.0M |
| 23 Aug 2016 | Benfica | Besiktas | Free / loan | €7.5M |
| 5 Jul 2014 | EC Bahia | Benfica | €4.8M | €400k |
| 1 Jan 2013 | Bahia U20 | EC Bahia | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.