Manuel Akanji
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Manuel Akanji's performance-implied value at EUR 21.3M-41.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 9.0M-17.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.6M-10.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 1
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 99.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €13.5M vs market €17.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -61% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2820 (83% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.06
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.04
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 99 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1722
- Opponent strength
- 1500
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.6M – €10.5M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 24 pts; changed club; league level down (-108 Elo); relative output up 190% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -58% (IQR -63% to -45%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Inter Milan | Serie A | CB | 33 | 2820 | 82% | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 1500 | 1722 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Manchester City | Premier League | CB | 26 | 2014 | 59% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1553 | 1749 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Manchester City | Premier League | CB | 30 | 2514 | 74% | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 1568 | 1893 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Manchester City | Premier League | CB | 29 | 2286 | 67% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 1547 | 1915 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | CB | 26 | 2263 | 74% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 1530 | 1643 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | CB | 28 | 2351 | 77% | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 1533 | 1703 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | CB | 29 | 2309 | 75% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 1521 | 1700 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | CB | 25 | 2205 | 72% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 1507 | 1683 | 1.05 |
| 2017/18 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | CB | 11 | 903 | 30% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1536 | 1592 | 1.04 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Inter Milan | 10 | 707 | 0 | 0 | 1640 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Switzerland | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Inter Milan | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 8 | 645 | 0 | 1 | 1657 |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 2 | 135 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Community Shield | Manchester City | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1594 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 8 | 666 | 2 | 0 | 1671 |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 5 | 333 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Community Shield | Manchester City | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1726 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Super Cup | Manchester City | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1568 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 11 | 945 | 1 | 0 | 1713 |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 6 | 477 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | 1626 |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 173 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1892 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 55 | 0 | 0 | 1615 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 7 | 630 | 0 | 0 | 1686 |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 435 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1919 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 6 | 524 | 0 | 0 | 1649 |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 270 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2019/20 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1839 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | 1627 |
| 2018/19 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League | FC Basel 1893 | 6 | 540 | 0 | 1 | 1637 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Berat Djimsiti Serie A · 2024 | 31 | €10.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Thiago Silva Ligue 1 · 2016 | 32 | €20.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Mario Hermoso Laliga · 2024 | 29 | €25.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Aleksandar Kolarov Premier League · 2017 | 32 | €10.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Danilo Serie A · 2021 | 30 | €20.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Danilo Pereira Ligue 1 · 2023 | 32 | €10.0M | €4.5M | fell |
| Stefan Savic Laliga · 2021 | 30 | €25.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Rafael Tolói Serie A · 2021 | 31 | €15.0M | €6.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Man City | Inter | €15.0M | €17.0M |
| 30 Jun 2026 | Inter | Man City | Free / loan | €17.0M |
| 1 Sept 2025 | Man City | Inter | Free / loan | €28.0M |
| 1 Sept 2022 | Dortmund | Man City | €20.0M | €30.0M |
| 15 Jan 2018 | Basel | Dortmund | €21.5M | €5.0M |
| 1 Jul 2015 | FC Winterthur | Basel | €700k | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Winterthur U21 | FC Winterthur | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Winterthur U18 | Winterthur U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.