Alessandro Bastoni
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Alessandro Bastoni's performance-implied value at EUR 28.3M-72.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 44.1M-79.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 27.9M-57.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 10
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 99.3th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €59.4M vs market €65.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -39% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2249 (66% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.20
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 99 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1722
- Opponent strength
- 1504
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €27.9M – €57.6M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-96 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -29% (IQR -51% to +7%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Inter Milan | Serie A | CB | 28 | 2249 | 66% | 1 | 4 | 0.20 | 0.10 | 1504 | 1722 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Inter Milan | Serie A | CB | 33 | 2421 | 71% | 1 | 5 | 0.22 | 0.10 | 1494 | 1819 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Inter Milan | Serie A | CB | 28 | 2282 | 67% | 1 | 4 | 0.20 | 0.09 | 1479 | 1802 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | Inter Milan | Serie A | CB | 29 | 2165 | 63% | 0 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 1469 | 1738 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | Inter Milan | Serie A | CB | 31 | 2321 | 68% | 1 | 3 | 0.16 | 0.08 | 1463 | 1731 | 0.89 |
| 2020/21 | Inter Milan | Serie A | CB | 33 | 2926 | 86% | 0 | 3 | 0.09 | 0.05 | 1443 | 1748 | 0.90 |
| 2019/20 | Inter Milan | Serie A | CB | 25 | 1922 | 56% | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.06 | 1418 | 1657 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Serie A | CB | 24 | 1685 | 49% | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.13 | 1444 | 1294 | 0.78 |
| 2017/18 | Atalanta BC | Serie A | CB | 4 | 87 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1347 | 1556 | 0.86 |
| 2016/17 | Atalanta BC | Serie A | CB | 3 | 153 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1448 | 1539 | 0.88 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Inter Milan | 9 | 691 | 1 | 1 | 1623 |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Inter Milan | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Supercoppa Italiana | Inter Milan | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1583 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Inter Milan | 14 | 1079 | 0 | 1 | 1716 |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Inter Milan | 4 | 269 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Supercoppa Italiana | Inter Milan | 2 | 158 | 0 | 0 | 1706 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Inter Milan | 7 | 501 | 0 | 0 | 1657 |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Inter Milan | 1 | 75 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Supercoppa Italiana | Inter Milan | 1 | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1590 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Inter Milan | 12 | 991 | 0 | 3 | 1704 |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | Inter Milan | 4 | 304 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Supercoppa Italiana | Inter Milan | 1 | 85 | 0 | 1 | 1688 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Inter Milan | 8 | 667 | 0 | 0 | 1704 |
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | Inter Milan | 4 | 218 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Supercoppa Italiana | Inter Milan | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | 1706 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Inter Milan | 6 | 411 | 0 | 1 | 1684 |
| 2020/21 | Italy Cup | Inter Milan | 2 | 151 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Inter Milan | 5 | 368 | 0 | 1 | 1645 |
| 2019/20 | Italy Cup | Inter Milan | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Italy Cup | Atalanta BC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Italy Cup | Atalanta BC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Achraf Hakimi Ligue 1 · 2024 | 26 | €60.0M | €80.0M | rose |
| Sergio Ramos Laliga · 2013 | 27 | €40.0M | €40.0M | flat |
| Fikayo Tomori Serie A · 2024 | 27 | €40.0M | €17.0M | fell |
| Alex Sandro Serie A · 2018 | 27 | €45.0M | €40.0M | flat |
| José María Giménez Laliga · 2023 | 28 | €35.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Davide Calabria Serie A · 2022 | 26 | €25.0M | €13.0M | fell |
| Mats Hummels Bundesliga · 2016 | 28 | €38.0M | €60.0M | rose |
| Ronald Araujo Laliga · 2024 | 25 | €70.0M | €20.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2019 | Parma | Inter | Free / loan | €15.0M |
| 7 Aug 2018 | Inter | Parma | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Atalanta | Inter | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 31 Aug 2017 | Atalanta | Inter | €40.7M | €1.5M |
| 31 Aug 2017 | Inter | Atalanta | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 1 Jan 2017 | Atalanta U19 | Atalanta | Unknown | €75k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Atalanta U17 | Atalanta U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Atalanta Youth | Atalanta U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.