Gianluigi Donnarumma
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Gianluigi Donnarumma's performance-implied value at EUR 40.1M-82.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 31.1M-66.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 21.6M-44.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 20
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 100th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €44.6M vs market €45.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -24% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3060 (90% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 100 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1809
- Opponent strength
- 1587
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €21.6M – €44.5M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 21 pts; changed club; league level up (+149 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -51% (IQR -64% to +13%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Manchester City | Premier League | GK | 34 | 3060 | 89% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1587 | 1809 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | GK | 24 | 2092 | 68% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1448 | 1812 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | GK | 25 | 2170 | 71% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1474 | 1700 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | GK | 38 | 3410 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1425 | 1672 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | GK | 17 | 1530 | 45% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1440 | 1714 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | AC Milan | Serie A | GK | 37 | 3330 | 97% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1445 | 1639 | 0.90 |
| 2019/20 | AC Milan | Serie A | GK | 36 | 3202 | 94% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1440 | 1590 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | AC Milan | Serie A | GK | 36 | 3092 | 90% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1446 | 1538 | 0.78 |
| 2017/18 | AC Milan | Serie A | GK | 38 | 3420 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1469 | 1555 | 0.86 |
| 2016/17 | AC Milan | Serie A | GK | 38 | 3420 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1474 | 1519 | 0.88 |
| 2015/16 | AC Milan | Serie A | GK | 30 | 2629 | 77% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1476 | 1515 | 0.95 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 9 | 810 | 0 | 0 | 1646 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 15 | 1380 | 0 | 0 | 1705 |
| 2024/25 | Trophee Des Champions | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1584 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 12 | 1080 | 0 | 0 | 1686 |
| 2023/24 | Trophee Des Champions | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1397 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 8 | 720 | 0 | 0 | 1677 |
| 2022/23 | Trophee Des Champions | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1457 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | 1731 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | AC Milan | 8 | 720 | 0 | 0 | 1604 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | AC Milan | 3 | 300 | 0 | 0 | 1388 |
| 2019/20 | Italy Cup | AC Milan | 3 | 300 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Italy Cup | AC Milan | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Supercoppa Italiana | AC Milan | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1839 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | AC Milan | 8 | 720 | 0 | 0 | 1504 |
| 2017/18 | Italy Cup | AC Milan | 4 | 390 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | AC Milan | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | 1373 |
| 2016/17 | Italy Cup | AC Milan | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Supercoppa Italiana | AC Milan | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | 1818 |
| 2015/16 | Italy Cup | AC Milan | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thibaut Courtois Laliga · 2020 | 28 | €48.0M | €60.0M | rose |
| Alisson Premier League · 2021 | 29 | €60.0M | €35.0M | fell |
| Kepa Arrizabalaga Premier League · 2019 | 25 | €60.0M | €13.0M | fell |
| Ederson Premier League · 2018 | 25 | €50.0M | €56.0M | flat |
| Marc-André ter Stegen Laliga · 2020 | 28 | €72.0M | €30.0M | fell |
| Jan Oblak Laliga · 2018 | 25 | €70.0M | €80.0M | flat |
| Aaron Ramsdale Premier League · 2023 | 25 | €40.0M | €16.0M | fell |
| Edouard Mendy Premier League · 2022 | 30 | €32.0M | €8.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sept 2025 | PSG | Man City | €30.0M | €40.0M |
| 14 Jul 2021 | AC Milan | PSG | Free / loan | €60.0M |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Milan U19 | AC Milan | Unknown | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | AC Milan Youth | Milan U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Castellammare | AC Milan Youth | €250k | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.