Matteo Gabbia
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Matteo Gabbia's performance-implied value at EUR 7.6M-28.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 11.9M-20.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 7.8M-18.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 29
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 87.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €16.4M vs market €17.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -19% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2531 (74% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.02
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 88 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1570
- Opponent strength
- 1498
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €7.8M – €18.1M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 77% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -2% (IQR -24% to +62%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | AC Milan | Serie A | CB | 30 | 2531 | 74% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1498 | 1570 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | AC Milan | Serie A | CB | 26 | 2154 | 63% | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 1495 | 1625 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | AC Milan | Serie A | CB | 18 | 1276 | 37% | 2 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.11 | 1498 | 1625 | 0.98 |
| 2023/24 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | CB | 7 | 479 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1462 | 1577 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | AC Milan | Serie A | CB | 12 | 610 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1454 | 1622 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | AC Milan | Serie A | CB | 8 | 537 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1386 | 1683 | 0.89 |
| 2020/21 | AC Milan | Serie A | CB | 8 | 558 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1382 | 1639 | 0.90 |
| 2019/20 | AC Milan | Serie A | CB | 9 | 678 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1397 | 1590 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | AC Milan | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | AC Milan | 6 | 404 | 0 | 0 | 1599 |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | AC Milan | 3 | 239 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Supercoppa Italiana | AC Milan | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1673 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Villarreal CF | 6 | 495 | 0 | 0 | 1498 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | AC Milan | 6 | 495 | 1 | 0 | 1603 |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | AC Milan | 1 | 39 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | AC Milan | 4 | 208 | 1 | 0 | 1674 |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | AC Milan | 1 | 77 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | AC Milan | 2 | 137 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | AC Milan | 3 | 300 | 0 | 0 | 1388 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | AC Milan | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1558 |
| 2019/20 | Italy Cup | AC Milan | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | AC Milan | 1 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1424 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Milenković Serie A · 2024 | 27 | €15.0M | €28.0M | rose |
| Konstantinos Manolas Serie A · 2015 | 24 | €17.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Matija Nastasić Bundesliga · 2018 | 25 | €17.0M | €13.0M | fell |
| Dani Vivian Laliga · 2024 | 25 | €25.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Nicolas Lombaerts Premier Liga · 2013 | 28 | €10.0M | €7.5M | fell |
| Juan Jesus Serie A · 2015 | 24 | €11.0M | €7.5M | fell |
| Rafael Tolói Serie A · 2017 | 27 | €7.0M | €11.0M | rose |
| Gianluca Mancini Serie A · 2022 | 26 | €21.0M | €25.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Jan 2024 | Villarreal | AC Milan | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 26 Jul 2023 | AC Milan | Villarreal | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Lucchese | AC Milan | Free / loan | €500k |
| 31 Aug 2018 | AC Milan | Lucchese | Free / loan | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Milan U19 | AC Milan | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Milan U17 | Milan U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | AC Milan Youth | Milan U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.