Christoph Baumgartner
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Christoph Baumgartner's performance-implied value at EUR 14.6M-43.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 24.4M-46.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 15.1M-41.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.31x the positional average in the league (2793 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 13
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 91.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €37.5M vs market €40.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -34% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2793 (91% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.71
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.53
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 91 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1568
- Opponent strength
- 1481
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €15.1M – €41.0M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 39 pts; relative output up 196% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -13% (IQR -35% to +2%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | AM | 33 | 2793 | 91% | 13 | 9 | 0.71 | 0.53 | 1481 | 1568 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | AM | 31 | 1609 | 53% | 2 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.17 | 1467 | 1533 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | AM | 32 | 1149 | 38% | 5 | 2 | 0.55 | 0.27 | 1476 | 1692 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | CM | 33 | 2582 | 84% | 7 | 7 | 0.49 | 0.43 | 1528 | 1444 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | AM | 29 | 1896 | 62% | 7 | 1 | 0.38 | 0.33 | 1501 | 1479 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | AM | 31 | 2380 | 78% | 6 | 5 | 0.42 | 0.38 | 1536 | 1525 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | AM | 26 | 1494 | 49% | 7 | 4 | 0.66 | 0.55 | 1535 | 1558 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | AM | 2 | 86 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 1502 | 1573 | 1.05 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | RB Leipzig | 4 | 226 | 4 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | RB Leipzig | 8 | 482 | 2 | 0 | 1632 |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | RB Leipzig | 4 | 180 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | RB Leipzig | 6 | 112 | 0 | 1 | 1693 |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | RB Leipzig | 2 | 26 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 3 | 241 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 2 | 195 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 8 | 421 | 3 | 2 | 1481 |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 2 | 178 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 2 | 109 | 0 | 2 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Axel Witsel Premier Liga · 2014 | 25 | €35.0M | €23.0M | fell |
| Aleix García Laliga · 2024 | 27 | €25.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Bruno Guimarães Ligue 1 · 2022 | 25 | €40.0M | €85.0M | rose |
| Adrien Rabiot Serie A · 2023 | 28 | €40.0M | €25.0M | fell |
| Mikel Merino Laliga · 2022 | 26 | €50.0M | €50.0M | flat |
| Seko Fofana Ligue 1 · 2022 | 27 | €25.0M | €16.0M | fell |
| Alan Dzagoev Premier Liga · 2016 | 26 | €16.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Sergej Milinković-Savić Serie A · 2020 | 25 | €64.0M | €70.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | Hoffenheim | Leipzig | €25.5M | €24.0M |
| 15 Jan 2019 | Hoffenheim II | Hoffenheim | Unknown | €350k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Hoffenheim U19 | Hoffenheim II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | St. Pölten U18 | Hoffenheim U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | St. Pölten U16 | St. Pölten U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | St. Pölten U15 | St. Pölten U16 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Horn Youth | St. Pölten U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.