Bruno Guimarães
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Bruno Guimarães's performance-implied value at EUR 39.3M-83.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 31.1M-71.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 31.7M-51.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.77x the positional average in the league (2460 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 9
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 99.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €54.2M vs market €70.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -50% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2460 (72% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.55
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.39
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 99 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1631
- Opponent strength
- 1580
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €31.7M – €51.9M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 24 pts; role change DM -> CM.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -45% (IQR -53% to -34%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Newcastle United | Premier League | CM | 29 | 2460 | 72% | 9 | 6 | 0.55 | 0.39 | 1580 | 1631 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Newcastle United | Premier League | DM | 38 | 3287 | 96% | 5 | 6 | 0.30 | 0.23 | 1571 | 1653 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Newcastle United | Premier League | DM | 37 | 3269 | 96% | 7 | 8 | 0.41 | 0.27 | 1577 | 1610 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Newcastle United | Premier League | DM | 32 | 2734 | 80% | 4 | 5 | 0.30 | 0.20 | 1556 | 1678 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | DM | 20 | 1640 | 48% | 0 | 4 | 0.22 | 0.14 | 1420 | 1587 | 0.86 |
| 2021/22 | Newcastle United | Premier League | CM | 17 | 1034 | 30% | 5 | 1 | 0.52 | 0.45 | 1611 | 1545 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | DM | 33 | 1759 | 51% | 3 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.14 | 1402 | 1587 | 0.75 |
| 2019/20 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | DM | 3 | 270 | 11% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1405 | 1566 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Newcastle United | 7 | 544 | 0 | 0 | 1643 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Brazil | 3 | 251 | 0 | 3 | — |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Newcastle United | 1 | 41 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Newcastle United | 3 | 154 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Newcastle United | 6 | 540 | 0 | 1 | 1675 |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Newcastle United | 4 | 390 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Newcastle United | 1 | 30 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Lyon | 5 | 232 | 0 | 2 | 1555 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Olympique Lyon | 4 | 295 | 0 | 0 | 1768 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nemanja Matić Premier League · 2016 | 28 | €38.0M | €40.0M | flat |
| Jorginho Premier League · 2020 | 29 | €52.0M | €40.0M | fell |
| Filip Kostić Bundesliga · 2021 | 29 | €35.0M | €22.0M | fell |
| Pierre-Emile Højbjerg Premier League · 2023 | 28 | €45.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Leandro Trossard Premier League · 2023 | 29 | €35.0M | €22.0M | fell |
| Granit Xhaka Premier League · 2019 | 27 | €45.0M | €22.0M | fell |
| Dani Parejo Laliga · 2019 | 30 | €30.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Marcel Sabitzer Bundesliga · 2021 | 27 | €42.0M | €20.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jan 2022 | Lyon | Newcastle | €42.1M | €30.0M |
| 30 Jan 2020 | Athletico-PR | Lyon | €20.0M | €20.0M |
| 11 May 2017 | GO Audax | Atlético-PR | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.