Mile Svilar
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mile Svilar's performance-implied value at EUR 13.2M-39.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 25.5M-41.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 19.8M-38.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 11
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 94.6th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €36.3M vs market €35.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -29% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3420 (100% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 95 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1638
- Opponent strength
- 1492
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €19.8M – €38.1M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -4% (IQR -29% to +11%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Associazione Sportiva Roma | Serie A | GK | 38 | 3420 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1492 | 1638 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Associazione Sportiva Roma | Serie A | GK | 38 | 3420 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1492 | 1668 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Associazione Sportiva Roma | Serie A | GK | 15 | 1350 | 39% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1490 | 1618 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | Associazione Sportiva Roma | Serie A | GK | 3 | 270 | 8% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1445 | 1578 | 0.94 |
| 2020/21 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | GK | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1158 | 1619 | 0.61 |
| 2019/20 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | GK | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1175 | 1583 | 0.59 |
| 2018/19 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | GK | 1 | 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1637 | 1683 | 0.65 |
| 2017/18 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | GK | 3 | 270 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1305 | 1605 | 0.64 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 9 | 840 | 0 | 0 | 1505 |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 12 | 1080 | 0 | 0 | 1553 |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 14 | 1290 | 0 | 0 | 1603 |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1440 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League | SL Benfica | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | 1712 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Igor Akinfeev Premier Liga · 2014 | 28 | €20.0M | €14.0M | fell |
| Álex Remiro Laliga · 2023 | 28 | €25.0M | €18.0M | fell |
| Fernando Muslera Super Lig · 2013 | 27 | €16.0M | €17.0M | flat |
| Joe Hart Premier League · 2013 | 26 | €24.0M | €16.0M | fell |
| Mike Maignan Serie A · 2022 | 27 | €35.0M | €38.0M | flat |
| Anthony Lopes Ligue 1 · 2018 | 28 | €20.0M | €17.5M | flat |
| Alisson Serie A · 2018 | 26 | €60.0M | €72.0M | rose |
| Bernd Leno Bundesliga · 2018 | 26 | €20.0M | €28.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2022 | Benfica | Roma | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 28 Aug 2017 | RSC Anderlecht | Benfica | €2.5M | €350k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Anderlecht U21 | RSC Anderlecht | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Anderlecht U19 | Anderlecht U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Anderlecht Yth. | Anderlecht U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Beerschot Yth. | Anderlecht Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.