Juan Miranda
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Juan Miranda's performance-implied value at EUR 7.3M-25.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 9.6M-16.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 6.1M-15.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 39
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 85.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €13.0M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -21% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2573 (75% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.21
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.17
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 85 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1523
- Opponent strength
- 1491
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €6.1M – €15.6M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -37% (IQR -55% to -8%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Bologna Football Club 1909 | Serie A | LB | 32 | 2573 | 75% | 1 | 5 | 0.21 | 0.17 | 1491 | 1523 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Bologna Football Club 1909 | Serie A | LB | 31 | 2277 | 67% | 0 | 6 | 0.24 | 0.14 | 1488 | 1559 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | LB | 25 | 1860 | 54% | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 1480 | 1520 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | LB | 21 | 1475 | 43% | 3 | 2 | 0.31 | 0.22 | 1508 | 1530 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | LB | 13 | 782 | 23% | 0 | 2 | 0.23 | 0.16 | 1539 | 1588 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | LB | 22 | 1650 | 48% | 1 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.17 | 1550 | 1557 | 1.10 |
| 2019/20 | FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga | LB | 11 | 781 | 26% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1530 | 1415 | 1.06 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 10 | 794 | 0 | 1 | 1509 |
| 2025/26 | Supercoppa Italiana | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1712 |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 5 | 304 | 0 | 0 | 1662 |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Real Betis Balompié | 2 | 180 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Real Betis Balompié | 3 | 141 | 1 | 0 | 1509 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Real Betis Balompié | 7 | 542 | 0 | 3 | 1489 |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Real Betis Balompié | 2 | 187 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Supercopa | Real Betis Balompié | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | 1731 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Real Betis Balompié | 7 | 400 | 1 | 0 | 1537 |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | Real Betis Balompié | 3 | 189 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Copa Del Rey | Real Betis Balompié | 3 | 286 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | FC Schalke 04 | 1 | 30 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salvatore Bocchetti Premier Liga · 2013 | 27 | €14.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Zeki Çelik Ligue 1 · 2022 | 25 | €18.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Leonardo Balerdi Ligue 1 · 2024 | 25 | €20.0M | €18.0M | flat |
| Sam Beukema Serie A · 2024 | 26 | €18.0M | €22.0M | rose |
| Ko Itakura Bundesliga · 2023 | 26 | €12.0M | €12.0M | flat |
| Andoni Gorosabel Laliga · 2022 | 26 | €10.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Cédric Soares Premier League · 2017 | 26 | €15.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Matija Nastasić Bundesliga · 2019 | 26 | €18.0M | €5.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Jul 2024 | Real Betis | Bologna | Free / loan | €9.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Barcelona | Real Betis | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Real Betis | Barcelona | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 5 Oct 2020 | Barcelona | Real Betis | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 30 Jun 2020 | FC Schalke 04 | Barcelona | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 30 Aug 2019 | Barcelona | FC Schalke 04 | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 29 Aug 2019 | Barcelona B | Barcelona | Unknown | €5.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Barça U19 | Barcelona B | Unknown | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Barça U18 | Barça U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Barça U16 | Barça U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Real Betis Yth. | Barça U16 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.