Gianluca Gaetano

26 yrs · Defensive midfielder (also AM) · Italy
Cagliari Calcio · Serie A · Foot: right · Height: 183 cm
Risk: LowConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2031
Market value
€6.5M
Updated today
Estimated acquisition
€3.2M – €7.8M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€1.9M – €5.7M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€3.2M – €9.3M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€5.9M – €2.6M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€3.2M – €7.8M
Model value (performance-implied)€1.9M – €5.7M
Projected value (24 months)€3.2M – €9.3M
Dashed line: current market value (€6.5M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Gianluca Gaetano's performance-implied value at EUR 1.9M-5.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.2M-7.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.2M-9.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.13x the positional average in the league (1911 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 36

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAverage53.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral26.2 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €5.5M vs market €6.5M
Expected appreciationLow-24% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.93
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskLow
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €6.5M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1911 (56% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.28
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.46
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
53 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.93 (rank 4)
Team strength (Elo)
1376
Opponent strength
1502
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€3.2M – €9.3M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 27 pts; relative output down 36% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -3% (IQR -45% to +63%).

Risk profile

Overall: Low

  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Cagliari CalcioSerie AAM33191156%240.280.46150213760.93
2024/25Cagliari CalcioSerie AAM2899829%240.540.70149913680.99
2023/24Cagliari CalcioSerie AAM1175022%410.600.68148213490.98
2023/24SSC NapoliSerie AAM91545%111.170.33143415690.98
2022/23SSC NapoliSerie AAM8702%112.570.31142417390.94

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Italy CupCagliari Calcio213310—
2024/25Italy CupCagliari Calcio212600—
2023/24Italy CupSSC Napoli19000—
2023/24Supercoppa ItalianaSSC Napoli233001719
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueSSC Napoli121001559
2022/23Italy CupSSC Napoli16500—
2022/23Uefa Champions LeagueSSC Napoli328001632
2019/20Uefa Champions LeagueSSC Napoli118001442

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Matheus Henrique
Serie A · 2023
26€10.0M€6.0Mfell
Rubén Vargas
Bundesliga · 2024
26€7.5M€12.0Mrose
Patrick Osterhage
Bundesliga · 2024
24€7.0M€12.0Mrose
Gabriel Silva
Serie A · 2016
25€3.5M€2.5Mfell
Jakub Jankto
Serie A · 2020
24€9.5M€4.0Mfell
Nicolás Domínguez
Serie A · 2022
24€13.0M€17.0Mrose
João Pedro
Serie A · 2018
26€5.0M€12.0Mrose
Ibrahima Sissoko
Ligue 1 · 2024
27€6.0M€2.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2025NapoliCagliari€6.2M€4.0M
30 Jun 2025CagliariNapoliFree / loan€4.0M
30 Aug 2024NapoliCagliariFree / loan€6.0M
30 Jun 2024CagliariNapoliFree / loan€6.0M
1 Feb 2024NapoliCagliariFree / loan€4.5M
30 Jun 2022CremoneseNapoliFree / loan€4.5M
31 Aug 2021NapoliCremoneseFree / loan€1.8M
30 Jun 2021CremoneseNapoliFree / loan€1.8M
21 Jan 2020NapoliCremoneseFree / loan€800k
1 Jul 2019Napoli U19NapoliUnknown€800k
29 Dec 2016Napoli U17Napoli U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2015SSC Napoli YoutNapoli U17UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.