
Gianluca Gaetano
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Gianluca Gaetano's performance-implied value at EUR 1.9M-5.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.2M-7.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.2M-9.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.13x the positional average in the league (1911 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 36
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 53.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €5.5M vs market €6.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -24% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1911 (56% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.28
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.46
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 53 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1376
- Opponent strength
- 1502
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.2M – €9.3M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 27 pts; relative output down 36% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -3% (IQR -45% to +63%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Cagliari Calcio | Serie A | AM | 33 | 1911 | 56% | 2 | 4 | 0.28 | 0.46 | 1502 | 1376 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Cagliari Calcio | Serie A | AM | 28 | 998 | 29% | 2 | 4 | 0.54 | 0.70 | 1499 | 1368 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Cagliari Calcio | Serie A | AM | 11 | 750 | 22% | 4 | 1 | 0.60 | 0.68 | 1482 | 1349 | 0.98 |
| 2023/24 | SSC Napoli | Serie A | AM | 9 | 154 | 5% | 1 | 1 | 1.17 | 0.33 | 1434 | 1569 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | SSC Napoli | Serie A | AM | 8 | 70 | 2% | 1 | 1 | 2.57 | 0.31 | 1424 | 1739 | 0.94 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Cagliari Calcio | 2 | 133 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Cagliari Calcio | 2 | 126 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | SSC Napoli | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Supercoppa Italiana | SSC Napoli | 2 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 1719 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | SSC Napoli | 1 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1559 |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | SSC Napoli | 1 | 65 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | SSC Napoli | 3 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 1632 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | SSC Napoli | 1 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1442 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matheus Henrique Serie A · 2023 | 26 | €10.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Rubén Vargas Bundesliga · 2024 | 26 | €7.5M | €12.0M | rose |
| Patrick Osterhage Bundesliga · 2024 | 24 | €7.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Gabriel Silva Serie A · 2016 | 25 | €3.5M | €2.5M | fell |
| Jakub Jankto Serie A · 2020 | 24 | €9.5M | €4.0M | fell |
| Nicolás Domínguez Serie A · 2022 | 24 | €13.0M | €17.0M | rose |
| João Pedro Serie A · 2018 | 26 | €5.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Ibrahima Sissoko Ligue 1 · 2024 | 27 | €6.0M | €2.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Napoli | Cagliari | €6.2M | €4.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Cagliari | Napoli | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 30 Aug 2024 | Napoli | Cagliari | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Cagliari | Napoli | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 1 Feb 2024 | Napoli | Cagliari | Free / loan | €4.5M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Cremonese | Napoli | Free / loan | €4.5M |
| 31 Aug 2021 | Napoli | Cremonese | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Cremonese | Napoli | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 21 Jan 2020 | Napoli | Cremonese | Free / loan | €800k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Napoli U19 | Napoli | Unknown | €800k |
| 29 Dec 2016 | Napoli U17 | Napoli U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | SSC Napoli Yout | Napoli U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.