Gabriel Gudmundsson
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Gabriel Gudmundsson's performance-implied value at EUR 12.5M-20.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 14.2M-23.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 9.2M-17.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.40x the positional average in the league (2639 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 13
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 88.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €19.3M vs market €20.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -32% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2639 (77% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.09
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 88 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1521
- Opponent strength
- 1621
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €9.2M – €17.8M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 19 pts; changed club; team strength down (-74 Elo); league level up (+149 Elo); role change LB -> LM; relative output down 32% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -23% (IQR -34% to +10%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Leeds United | Premier League | LM | 32 | 2639 | 77% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1621 | 1521 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | LB | 30 | 1787 | 58% | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 1455 | 1594 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | LB | 25 | 1263 | 41% | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 1480 | 1552 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | LB | 18 | 831 | 24% | 0 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.10 | 1425 | 1555 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | LB | 30 | 1340 | 39% | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 1415 | 1540 | 0.86 |
| 2021/22 | FC Groningen | Eredivisie | LM | 3 | 241 | 8% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.21 | 1370 | 1270 | 0.60 |
| 2020/21 | FC Groningen | Eredivisie | LB | 23 | 1645 | 54% | 0 | 5 | 0.27 | 0.20 | 1339 | 1325 | 0.56 |
| 2019/20 | FC Groningen | Eredivisie | LW | 11 | 402 | 17% | 2 | 0 | 0.45 | 0.40 | 1340 | 1345 | 0.62 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Leeds United | 3 | 297 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Sweden | 3 | 242 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | LOSC Lille | 9 | 485 | 0 | 1 | 1701 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | LOSC Lille | 4 | 376 | 0 | 0 | 1598 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | LOSC Lille | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1522 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | LOSC Lille | 4 | 243 | 0 | 0 | 1670 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Kampl Bundesliga · 2017 | 27 | €15.0M | €22.0M | rose |
| Leander Dendoncker Premier League · 2021 | 26 | €30.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Isaac Hayden Premier League · 2021 | 26 | €10.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Scott McTominay Premier League · 2022 | 26 | €32.0M | €32.0M | flat |
| Vitaly Janelt Premier League · 2024 | 26 | €22.0M | €16.0M | fell |
| Mauro Arambarri Laliga · 2020 | 25 | €20.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Rubén Pérez Laliga · 2018 | 29 | €7.5M | €6.0M | fell |
| Pierre-Emile Højbjerg Premier League · 2020 | 25 | €12.0M | €40.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Jul 2025 | Lille | Leeds | €11.6M | €7.0M |
| 31 Aug 2021 | FC Groningen | Lille | €6.0M | €1.8M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Halmstads BK | FC Groningen | Unknown | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Halmstad U19 | Halmstads BK | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2015 | Halmstad U17 | Halmstad U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.