Julian Ryerson
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Julian Ryerson's performance-implied value at EUR 20.6M-38.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 17.2M-25.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 9.3M-20.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.42x the positional average in the league (2274 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 8
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 93th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €20.8M vs market €25.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -46% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2274 (74% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.59
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.31
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 93 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1656
- Opponent strength
- 1481
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €9.3M – €20.0M
Trajectory drivers: role change RB -> RM.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -38% (IQR -52% to -16%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | RM | 31 | 2274 | 74% | 0 | 15 | 0.59 | 0.31 | 1481 | 1656 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | RB | 29 | 2270 | 74% | 2 | 4 | 0.24 | 0.16 | 1499 | 1680 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | RB | 21 | 1773 | 58% | 4 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.15 | 1552 | 1716 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | LB | 17 | 1416 | 46% | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.09 | 1499 | 1691 | 1.04 |
| 2022/23 | 1.FC Union Berlin | Bundesliga | RM | 13 | 1041 | 34% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1530 | 1587 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | 1.FC Union Berlin | Bundesliga | RB | 28 | 1420 | 46% | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.14 | 1536 | 1568 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | 1.FC Union Berlin | Bundesliga | RB | 24 | 1064 | 35% | 0 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.15 | 1544 | 1508 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | 1.FC Union Berlin | Bundesliga | RB | 14 | 357 | 12% | 0 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.16 | 1568 | 1434 | 1.06 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 9 | 606 | 0 | 2 | 1644 |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 187 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Norway | 2 | 103 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 12 | 957 | 0 | 0 | 1631 |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 59 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 10 | 897 | 0 | 0 | 1717 |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | 1.FC Union Berlin | 6 | 454 | 0 | 0 | 1525 |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Union Berlin | 2 | 131 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1678 |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Union Berlin | 3 | 79 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | 1.FC Union Berlin | 1 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1380 |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Union Berlin | 2 | 14 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Union Berlin | 3 | 181 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robin Gosens Serie A · 2021 | 27 | €35.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Hakan Çalhanoğlu Serie A · 2022 | 28 | €35.0M | €45.0M | rose |
| Roman Eremenko Premier Liga · 2015 | 28 | €20.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Adrien Rabiot Serie A · 2023 | 28 | €40.0M | €25.0M | fell |
| Jordan Veretout Serie A · 2021 | 28 | €33.0M | €16.0M | fell |
| Arturo Vidal Serie A · 2013 | 26 | €35.0M | €42.0M | rose |
| Marcel Sabitzer Bundesliga · 2021 | 27 | €42.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Luis Alberto Serie A · 2023 | 31 | €18.0M | €11.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Jan 2023 | Union Berlin | Dortmund | €5.0M | €7.5M |
| 31 Jul 2018 | Viking FK | Union Berlin | €150k | €400k |
| 24 Jul 2015 | Viking FK Youth | Viking FK | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 27 Jun 2013 | Lyngdal Jugend | Viking FK Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.