
Ismail Jakobs
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ismail Jakobs's performance-implied value at EUR 1.7M-4.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.0M-6.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.9M-8.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 67
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 51.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €4.0M vs market €8.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -41% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1299 (43% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.07
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.07
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 52 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1501
- Opponent strength
- 1254
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.9M – €8.4M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -34% (IQR -44% to -27%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1299 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 50 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–191%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 54%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Galatasaray | Super Lig | LB | 25 | 1299 | 42% | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 1254 | 1501 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Galatasaray | Super Lig | LB | 17 | 1184 | 37% | 0 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.08 | 1283 | 1557 | 0.39 |
| 2024/25 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | LB | 2 | 180 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1401 | 1571 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | LB | 22 | 1468 | 48% | 1 | 2 | 0.18 | 0.14 | 1464 | 1573 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | LB | 32 | 1100 | 32% | 0 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.13 | 1450 | 1485 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | LB | 28 | 1190 | 35% | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 1414 | 1599 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | 1.FC Köln | Bundesliga | LM | 23 | 1728 | 56% | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.19 | 1569 | 1400 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | 1.FC Köln | Bundesliga | LW | 20 | 1678 | 55% | 2 | 2 | 0.21 | 0.35 | 1543 | 1407 | 1.06 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Galatasaray | 12 | 871 | 0 | 0 | 1638 |
| 2025/26 | Africa Cup Of Nations | Senegal | 4 | 248 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Senegal | 2 | 126 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Galatasaray | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | 1426 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | AS Monaco | 2 | 143 | 0 | 0 | 1669 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | AS Monaco | 6 | 97 | 0 | 1 | 1526 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | AS Monaco | 3 | 118 | 0 | 0 | 1368 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | AS Monaco | 3 | 47 | 0 | 1 | 1510 |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Köln | 2 | 174 | 1 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ousseynou Ba Super League 1 · 2021 | 26 | €5.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Alistair Johnston Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 25 | €7.0M | €10.0M | rose |
| Yukhym Konoplya Premier Liga · 2024 | 25 | €6.0M | €5.0M | flat |
| Christian Luyindama Super Lig · 2021 | 27 | €5.5M | €800k | fell |
| Dujon Sterling Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 25 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Dimitrios Siovas Super League 1 · 2015 | 27 | €3.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Cristian Ramírez Premier Liga · 2022 | 28 | €5.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Nir Bitton Scottish Premiership · 2018 | 27 | €2.3M | €1.2M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Monaco | Galatasaray | €8.0M | €7.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Galatasaray | Monaco | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 2 Sept 2024 | Monaco | Galatasaray | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 12 Jul 2021 | 1.FC Köln | Monaco | €7.3M | €7.0M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | 1.FC Köln II | 1.FC Köln | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | 1.FC Köln U19 | 1.FC Köln II | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | 1.FC Köln U17 | 1.FC Köln U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | 1.FC Köln Yth. | 1.FC Köln U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Bliesheim Jgd. | 1.FC Köln Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.