Michael Steinwender
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Michael Steinwender's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-1.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-1.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 71
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 31.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €813k vs market €1.2M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -17% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1541 (52% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.06
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.06
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 32 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1332
- Opponent strength
- 1221
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €558k – €1.5M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 28 pts; team strength up (+95 Elo); relative output down 36% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -34% to +21%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1541 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 16 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 90%–275%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 75%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Heart of Midlothian FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 27 | 1541 | 52% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 1221 | 1332 | 0.31 |
| 2024/25 | Heart of Midlothian FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 9 | 709 | 24% | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.08 | 1256 | 1237 | 0.34 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Scottish Fa Cup | Heart of Midlothian FC | 3 | 202 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clément Michelin Super League 1 · 2022 | 25 | €1.8M | €1.2M | fell |
| Salem M'Bakata Super League 1 · 2023 | 25 | €600k | €600k | flat |
| Lazaros Rota Super League 1 · 2022 | 25 | €1.0M | €2.0M | rose |
| Umut Meraş Super Lig · 2022 | 27 | €2.1M | €375k | fell |
| Mykyta Kravchenko Premier Liga · 2024 | 27 | €600k | €1.0M | rose |
| Juninho Premier Liga · 2022 | 27 | €800k | €500k | fell |
| Ertuğrul Ersoy Super Lig · 2022 | 25 | €600k | €650k | flat |
| Roman Vantukh Premier Liga · 2024 | 26 | €700k | €700k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Jan 2025 | Värnamo | Heart of Midl. | Unknown | €1.2M |
| 2 Jul 2024 | TSV Hartberg | Värnamo | Free / loan | €300k |
| 31 Aug 2021 | SKN St. Pölten | TSV Hartberg | Unknown | €250k |
| 19 Aug 2020 | SV Mattersburg | SKN St. Pölten | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Mattersburg II | SV Mattersburg | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Burgenland U18 | Mattersburg II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Burgenland U16 | Burgenland U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Burgenland U15 | Burgenland U16 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Mattersburg Jgd | Burgenland U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 18 Mar 2013 | Rapid Youth | Mattersburg Jgd | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Baumgarten Jgd | Rapid Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.