Auston Trusty
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Auston Trusty's performance-implied value at EUR 2.5M-7.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.0M-6.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.2M-5.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 35
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 66.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €4.0M vs market €6.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -41% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1729 (58% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.02
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 66 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1406
- Opponent strength
- 1177
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.2M – €5.4M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-106 Elo); relative output down 59% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -31% (IQR -44% to +49%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1729 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 16 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 90%–275%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 75%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Celtic FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 21 | 1729 | 58% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1177 | 1406 | 0.31 |
| 2024/25 | Celtic FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 20 | 1737 | 58% | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.04 | 1183 | 1512 | 0.34 |
| 2023/24 | Sheffield United | Premier League | CB | 32 | 2572 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1595 | 1269 | 1.14 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Celtic FC | 7 | 630 | 2 | 0 | 1532 |
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | Celtic FC | 3 | 360 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | United States | 2 | 100 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Celtic FC | 1 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1430 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Celtic FC | 10 | 816 | 0 | 0 | 1641 |
| 2024/25 | Scottish Fa Cup | Celtic FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Sheffield United | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Birmingham City | 3 | 300 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ousseynou Ba Super League 1 · 2022 | 27 | €4.5M | €2.6M | fell |
| Bakhtiyor Zaynutdinov Super Lig · 2024 | 26 | €5.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Marcel Tisserand Super Lig · 2022 | 29 | €2.8M | €2.0M | fell |
| Valeriy Bondar Premier Liga · 2024 | 25 | €5.0M | €8.0M | rose |
| Philippe Sandler Eredivisie · 2024 | 27 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Vítor Tormena Premier Liga · 2024 | 28 | €5.5M | €8.0M | rose |
| Lucas Lima Super Lig · 2022 | 31 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Joseph Okumu Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 25 | €4.5M | €9.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Aug 2024 | Sheff Utd | Celtic | €7.1M | €7.0M |
| 3 Aug 2023 | Arsenal | Sheff Utd | €5.8M | €10.0M |
| 31 May 2023 | Birmingham | Arsenal | Free / loan | €9.0M |
| 15 Jul 2022 | Arsenal | Birmingham | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 14 Jul 2022 | Colorado | Arsenal | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 1 Feb 2022 | Arsenal | Colorado | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 31 Jan 2022 | Colorado | Arsenal | €1.8M | €2.0M |
| 20 Nov 2019 | Philadelphia | Colorado | €680k | €1.3M |
| 30 Nov 2017 | Bethlehem Steel | Philadelphia | Unknown | €150k |
| 1 Apr 2016 | Ph. Union Acad. | Bethlehem Steel | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.