
Luis Suárez
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Luis Suárez's performance-implied value at EUR 7.4M-40.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 21.3M-35.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 16.8M-37.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.07x the positional average in the league (2699 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 23
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 89.4th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €29.3M vs market €30.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -22% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2699 (88% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 1.17
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.54
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 89 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1656
- Opponent strength
- 1309
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €16.8M – €37.7M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -25% (IQR -49% to +1%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 71%–130%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 66%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | ST | 32 | 2699 | 88% | 28 | 7 | 1.17 | 0.54 | 1309 | 1656 | 0.58 |
| 2023/24 | UD Almería | Laliga | ST | 15 | 920 | 27% | 6 | 0 | 0.59 | 0.80 | 1489 | 1327 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | UD Almería | Laliga | ST | 21 | 1480 | 43% | 4 | 5 | 0.55 | 0.76 | 1517 | 1371 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | ST | 7 | 290 | 8% | 3 | 1 | 1.24 | 0.44 | 1371 | 1568 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | Granada CF | Laliga | ST | 37 | 2855 | 83% | 8 | 4 | 0.38 | 0.49 | 1530 | 1415 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Granada CF | Laliga | ST | 25 | 1519 | 44% | 4 | 1 | 0.30 | 0.40 | 1556 | 1466 | 1.10 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Sporting CP | 12 | 956 | 5 | 2 | 1681 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Colombia | 3 | 168 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | Sporting CP | 1 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1617 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Olympique Marseille | 4 | 113 | 0 | 0 | 1642 |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | Granada CF | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Granada CF | 8 | 353 | 2 | 0 | 1521 |
| 2020/21 | Copa Del Rey | Granada CF | 2 | 104 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bas Dost Liga Portugal · 2018 | 29 | €22.0M | €6.5M | fell |
| Pedro Gonçalves Liga Portugal · 2024 | 26 | €32.0M | €25.0M | fell |
| Moussa Marega Liga Portugal · 2020 | 29 | €19.0M | €7.5M | fell |
| Dušan Tadić Eredivisie · 2019 | 31 | €25.0M | €18.0M | fell |
| Andriy Yarmolenko Premier Liga · 2016 | 27 | €22.0M | €23.0M | flat |
| Mehdi Taremi Liga Portugal · 2021 | 29 | €16.0M | €18.0M | flat |
| Viktor Gyökeres Liga Portugal · 2024 | 26 | €65.0M | €65.0M | flat |
| Viktor Claesson Premier Liga · 2019 | 27 | €18.0M | €10.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Jul 2025 | UD Almería | Sporting | €22.9M | €8.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Marseille | UD Almería | €8.0M | €8.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | UD Almería | Marseille | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 1 Jan 2023 | Marseille | UD Almería | Free / loan | €9.0M |
| 20 Jul 2022 | Granada CF | Marseille | €10.0M | €9.0M |
| 2 Oct 2020 | Watford | Granada CF | €10.0M | €7.5M |
| 6 Aug 2020 | Real Zaragoza | Watford | Free / loan | €7.5M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Watford | Real Zaragoza | Free / loan | €800k |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Gimnàstic | Watford | Free / loan | €800k |
| 9 Jul 2018 | Watford | Gimnàstic | Free / loan | €300k |
| 30 Jun 2018 | R. Valladolid B | Watford | Free / loan | €300k |
| 17 Jul 2017 | Watford | R. Valladolid B | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Leones FC | Watford | Unknown | €150k |
| 30 Jun 2017 | Granada B | Leones FC | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Granada CF U19 | Granada B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Mar 2016 | Leones FC | Granada CF U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.