Luis Suárez

28 yrs · Striker · Colombia
Sporting CP · Liga Portugal · Foot: right · Height: 179 cm
Risk: LowConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2030
Market value
€30.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€21.3M – €35.7M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€7.4M – €40.5M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€16.8M – €37.7M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€28.4M – €19.2M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€21.3M – €35.7M
Model value (performance-implied)€7.4M – €40.5M
Projected value (24 months)€16.8M – €37.7M
Dashed line: current market value (€30.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Luis Suárez's performance-implied value at EUR 7.4M-40.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 21.3M-35.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 16.8M-37.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.07x the positional average in the league (2699 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 23

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceHigh89.4th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable28.6 years
Acquisition costNeutralest. €29.3M vs market €30.0M
Expected appreciationLow-22% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationModerateleague coefficient 0.58
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskLow
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €30.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2699 (88% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
1.17
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.54
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
89 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.58 (rank 9)
Team strength (Elo)
1656
Opponent strength
1309
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€16.8M – €37.7M

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -25% (IQR -49% to +1%).

Risk profile

Overall: Low

  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
58 (ATT)
Relative output kept
71%–130%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
66%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Sporting CPLiga PortugalST32269988%2871.170.54130916560.58
2023/24UD AlmeríaLaligaST1592027%600.590.80148913271.00
2022/23UD AlmeríaLaligaST21148043%450.550.76151713710.98
2022/23Olympique MarseilleLigue 1ST72908%311.240.44137115680.82
2021/22Granada CFLaligaST37285583%840.380.49153014151.05
2020/21Granada CFLaligaST25151944%410.300.40155614661.10

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueSporting CP12956521681
2025/26World CupColombia316800—
2025/26Supercup Candido De OliveiraSporting CP122001617
2022/23Uefa Champions LeagueOlympique Marseille4113001642
2021/22Copa Del ReyGranada CF14500—
2020/21Uefa Europa LeagueGranada CF8353201521
2020/21Copa Del ReyGranada CF210400—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Bas Dost
Liga Portugal · 2018
29€22.0M€6.5Mfell
Pedro Gonçalves
Liga Portugal · 2024
26€32.0M€25.0Mfell
Moussa Marega
Liga Portugal · 2020
29€19.0M€7.5Mfell
Dušan Tadić
Eredivisie · 2019
31€25.0M€18.0Mfell
Andriy Yarmolenko
Premier Liga · 2016
27€22.0M€23.0Mflat
Mehdi Taremi
Liga Portugal · 2021
29€16.0M€18.0Mflat
Viktor Gyökeres
Liga Portugal · 2024
26€65.0M€65.0Mflat
Viktor Claesson
Premier Liga · 2019
27€18.0M€10.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
28 Jul 2025UD AlmeríaSporting€22.9M€8.0M
1 Jul 2023MarseilleUD Almería€8.0M€8.0M
30 Jun 2023UD AlmeríaMarseilleFree / loan€8.0M
1 Jan 2023MarseilleUD AlmeríaFree / loan€9.0M
20 Jul 2022Granada CFMarseille€10.0M€9.0M
2 Oct 2020WatfordGranada CF€10.0M€7.5M
6 Aug 2020Real ZaragozaWatfordFree / loan€7.5M
1 Jul 2019WatfordReal ZaragozaFree / loan€800k
30 Jun 2019GimnàsticWatfordFree / loan€800k
9 Jul 2018WatfordGimnàsticFree / loan€300k
30 Jun 2018R. Valladolid BWatfordFree / loan€300k
17 Jul 2017WatfordR. Valladolid BFree / loan€150k
1 Jul 2017Leones FCWatfordUnknown€150k
30 Jun 2017Granada BLeones FCFree / loan€150k
1 Jul 2016Granada CF U19Granada BUnknownData unavailable
1 Mar 2016Leones FCGranada CF U19Free / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.