Gabriel
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Gabriel's performance-implied value at EUR 56.3M-90.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 44.9M-97.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 33.7M-56.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 10
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 100th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €70.5M vs market €75.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -37% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2751 (80% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.23
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.09
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 100 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1876
- Opponent strength
- 1575
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €33.7M – €56.9M
Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+62 Elo); relative output down 22% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -30% (IQR -55% to +6%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | CB | 32 | 2751 | 80% | 3 | 4 | 0.23 | 0.09 | 1575 | 1876 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | CB | 28 | 2365 | 69% | 3 | 3 | 0.23 | 0.11 | 1552 | 1813 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | CB | 36 | 3044 | 89% | 4 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.06 | 1582 | 1794 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | CB | 38 | 3411 | 100% | 3 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 1555 | 1726 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | CB | 35 | 3067 | 90% | 5 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.09 | 1550 | 1667 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | CB | 23 | 1997 | 58% | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 1543 | 1688 | 1.19 |
| 2019/20 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | CB | 24 | 2087 | 83% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 1447 | 1516 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | CB | 14 | 1064 | 31% | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 1449 | 1543 | 0.82 |
| 2017/18 | ESTAC Troyes | Ligue 1 | CB | 1 | 83 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1351 | 1261 | 0.85 |
| 2016/17 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | CB | 1 | 8 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1390 | 1448 | 0.88 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Arsenal FC | 11 | 882 | 1 | 1 | 1623 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Brazil | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 2 | 148 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Arsenal FC | 9 | 804 | 1 | 0 | 1632 |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 1 | 120 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Arsenal FC | 10 | 930 | 0 | 0 | 1657 |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Community Shield | Arsenal FC | 1 | 87 | 0 | 0 | 1920 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Arsenal FC | 7 | 515 | 0 | 0 | 1561 |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Arsenal FC | 6 | 540 | 1 | 1 | 1539 |
| 2020/21 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | LOSC Lille | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1713 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergio Ramos Laliga · 2014 | 28 | €40.0M | €40.0M | flat |
| Jordi Alba Laliga · 2016 | 27 | €35.0M | €60.0M | rose |
| Kyle Walker Premier League · 2018 | 28 | €50.0M | €40.0M | fell |
| Daniel Carvajal Laliga · 2020 | 28 | €40.0M | €18.0M | fell |
| Andrew Robertson Premier League · 2023 | 29 | €40.0M | €18.0M | fell |
| João Cancelo Premier League · 2022 | 28 | €65.0M | €25.0M | fell |
| Virgil van Dijk Premier League · 2019 | 28 | €90.0M | €55.0M | fell |
| Gerard Piqué Laliga · 2016 | 29 | €40.0M | €50.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sept 2020 | Lille | Arsenal | €26.0M | €20.0M |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Din. Zagreb II | Lille | Free / loan | €600k |
| 15 Feb 2018 | Lille | Din. Zagreb II | Free / loan | €600k |
| 14 Feb 2018 | Troyes | Lille | Free / loan | €600k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Lille | Troyes | Free / loan | €600k |
| 31 Jan 2017 | Avaí FC | Lille | €3.0M | €350k |
| 1 Jan 2016 | Avaí U20 | Avaí FC | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.